CICC cuts forecasts and sees no clear inflection in Macau GGR or profitability
Analyst house lowers GGR and EBITDA for 2026–27 after weak demand signals.
Key Takeaways
- CICC said on 23 October 2026 there is no clear short‑term inflection for Macau GGR or sector profitability.
- The firm expects total Macau GGR to fall 1% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, to 85% and 79% of 2019 levels, respectively.
- CICC cut adjusted EBITDA by 7% for 2026 and 24% for 2027, to about US$7.73bn and US$7.02bn.
- Despite a 9% rise in average daily visitors during Golden Week, CICC estimated GGR from 1–11 October fell 5% year‑on‑year, suggesting weaker average spend.
CICC —China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Ltd— said on 23 October 2026 that it does not see "a clear short‑term inflection point" for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) or sector profitability, and it cut its forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Analysts Shengyong Goh, Jiayu Wang and Nanxi Liu described their stance as "cautious" and justified the revisions by weak fundamentals in H2 2026, a high RMB‑HKD comparison base and the absence of new supply or catalysts in 2027.
Forecast revisions and key figures
CICC lowered its forecasts for Macau total GGR for 2026 and 2027: it now expects GGR to fall 1% year‑on‑year in 2026 and 7% in 2027, reaching 85% and 79% of 2019 pre‑pandemic levels, respectively. By segment, it projects mass market GGR to rise 1% year‑on‑year in 2026 and then drop 6% in 2027. The VIP segment GGR, the note says, will contract 10% year‑on‑year in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
After adjusting GGR projections, the house cut its adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 24%, to approximately US$7.73 billion and US$7.02 billion, equivalent to year‑on‑year declines of 5% and 9%, respectively.
Demand and the visitor‑spend divergence
CICC noted a divergence between visitor volumes and GGR performance. Citing data from the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO), the analysts said average daily visitors between 1 and 7 October rose 9% year‑on‑year during Golden Week. Still, they estimated that GGR between 1 and 11 October fell 5% year‑on‑year on a comparable basis, with an ADR (average daily revenue) of MOP836 million (US$103.5 million).
"The divergence between stronger visitor traffic and weaker GGR points to a deterioration in average spend," wrote Shengyong Goh, Jiayu Wang and Nanxi Liu.
The analysts interpret those data as indicating the traffic recovery is led by lower‑spending visitors and that premium demand remains soft.
Operators, staffing and the events calendar
CICC observed that several Macau casino operators appear to have imposed a "hiring freeze" for front‑line gaming sales roles, which the report describes as indicative of a cautious view on short‑term growth and staffing needs. "It suggests management is preparing for a more muted growth period, not for an immediate acceleration in GGR," the analysts added.
On visitor attraction, CICC assessed that Macau's events calendar has lost some relative appeal. They pointed to competition from venues such as Kai Tak Stadium in Kowloon, Hong Kong, a 50,000‑seat retractable‑roof venue opened in March 2025 at Kai Tak Sports Park. The analysts said that after an intensive deployment of events between 2023 and 2025, 2026 programming appears to rely more on recurring formats and returning acts, which may limit incremental visit generation.
Market expectations and upcoming catalysts
CICC expects further downward revisions to consensus after third‑quarter 2026 results, as the market "will likely look beyond" temporary support from seasonality, holidays and RMB appreciation. The house remains cautious while no meaningful new supply, policy changes or clear demand catalysts appear.
Frequently Asked Questions
What GGR forecasts has CICC published for Macau in 2026 and 2027?
CICC forecasts total Macau GGR to decline 1% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, reaching 85% and 79% of 2019 pre‑pandemic levels. The revisions are in a research note by Shengyong Goh, Jiayu Wang and Nanxi Liu.
How has CICC adjusted its EBITDA estimates for 2026–27?
CICC cut its adjusted EBITDA estimates by 7% for 2026 and 24% for 2027, to approximately US$7.73 billion and US$7.02 billion, implying year‑on‑year declines of about 5% and 9%, respectively.
Why is there a discrepancy between rising visitor numbers and falling GGR?
According to CICC, average daily visitors rose 9% between 1 and 7 October, but estimated GGR from 1–11 October fell 5% year‑on‑year with an ADR of MOP836 million (US$103.5m). Analysts say this points to lower average spend and a recovery led by lower‑spending visitors.
What role do events and Hong Kong competition play in Macau's recovery?
CICC noted that after a busy events run from 2023–25, Macau's 2026 calendar relies more on recurring acts, reducing incremental visits. The opening of Kai Tak Stadium in Hong Kong in March 2025 is cited as competing for large events and could limit Macau's event‑driven recovery.
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Emilio Navarro
Industry Technology Correspondent
Emilio Navarro covers the cross-cutting technology and business of iGaming — platforms, data and AI, compliance tooling, affiliate marketing, financial results, and the stories that fit no single rubric. The reports open with the announcement, cite vendors and figures exactly as published, and keep a healthy distance from press-release language. When a supplier unveils a new engine or the advertising rulebook changes, Emilio Navarro reports what genuinely changes.
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