CreditSights says Macau can still hit MOP236,000,000,000 GGR in 2026

Macau can still reach the government’s target of MOP236,000,000,000 (US$29.2 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2026, CreditSights said in a report published on Monday. The firm notes the territory would need an average of MOP16.3 billion per month in the fourth quarter to hit the annual figure, and says October will provide a clearer read on the outlook.

Recent data and progress toward the target

Official data show Macau generated almost MOP187.12 billion in GGR in the first nine months of 2026, a 3.2% year-on-year increase. That sum equals 79% of the government’s annual forecast. CreditSights calculated the average monthly revenue over the nine months to 30 September at about MOP20.8 billion, above the implied monthly average of MOP19.7 billion from the annual target.

Assessment of the recent dip

CreditSights cautions against reading the run of softer months as structural weakness. “At this juncture, we think it may be too early to conclude that the soft data prints in recent months are more structural than cyclical,” analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey wrote. The firm asks that year-on-year falls in June and July be excluded from analysis, since those months were primarily affected by the FIFA World Cup.

“For now, we still see room for Macau to reach its 2026 GGR target,” Nicholas Chen and David Bussey wrote.

CreditSights described the roughly 1% year-on-year declines in August and September as relatively marginal.

Visitor volumes, spend per visitor and market segments

The report notes that visitor arrivals in September rose by around 16% year-on-year, but GGR per visitor fell 15% versus the prior year, to MOP5,616. The firm expects overall GGR performance to remain largely driven by visitor volumes, and judges that a substantial recovery in spend per visitor remains hard to achieve.

CreditSights also flagged differences across segments. In the third quarter, VIP-segment GGR was broadly flat year-on-year, while mass GGR fell 5.2%. Mass gaming accounted for 71.9% of the quarter’s total.

Reactions from authorities and operators

Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said earlier this month the government had no plans to revise its annual GGR forecast and pointed to October as an important indicator of whether increased visitor traffic will translate into higher gaming revenues. CreditSights noted that a robust visitor flow over the Golden Week in October could support a stronger monthly result. [Golden Week]( /events )

The firm also noted the optimism from management at Sands China Ltd about a quarter with favourable seasonality, supported by Golden Week and the NBA China Games held in Macau. Patrick Dumont, president and CEO of Las Vegas Sands Corp, described the group’s third-quarter performance as “aberrational” amid weaker high-value play. Grant Chum Kwan Lock, chief executive officer and chairman of Sands China, said underlying demand remained solid, citing growth in customer numbers and property visits. [NBA China Games](/sports) [Sands China Ltd](/b2b)