FDJ United cuts guidance for 2026 for third time after 8.1% Q3 revenue drop

FDJ United announced on 21 October that it is cutting its 2026 revenue forecast for the third time after reporting an 8.1% decline in third-quarter revenues. Group revenues were €794m in Q3 and €2.576m in the first nine months of the year; the company now expects low-single-digit GGR decline and mid-single-digit revenue decline for 2026, with a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%.

Results and new guidance announced on 21 October

The group, listed on Euronext Paris and owner of Unibet after acquiring Kindred Group for €2.45bn in October 2024, published the figures after market close on 21 October. The statement says quarterly GGR fell 6.1% to €1.950m and nine-month revenues declined 5.6% to €2.576m, a sharper fall than the -4.5% seen in the first half. Chair and CEO Stéphane Pallez attributed the performance to "intrinsic gaming factors, lower footfall in a weak economic backdrop and the expected tax increases."

"The group is now targeting a low-single-digit decline in GGR and a mid-single-digit decline in revenues," the company said in the statement.

The new target includes more than €70m of additional gaming taxes and keeps the expectation of a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%; in February guidance pointed to slight revenue growth and a 24.5% margin, and interim, more conservative guidance was issued in April and July.

Deterioration from lottery, prizes and tax rises

Lottery and retail sports betting in France reported €1.794m of revenues in nine months, a 4.8% decline after €28m of additional taxes. Draw-games revenues fell 12.2% in nine months and 17.3% in the quarter, reaching €171m in Q3.

The statement details that, up to the end of September, there were 12 EuroMillions jackpots above €130m, versus 27 the prior year; additionally there was 1 jackpot above €200m versus 12 the previous year. Instant-win game revenues rose 0.3% to €935m, but a higher payout on these products dragged on overall lottery figures. Retail sports betting revenues fell 4.5% to €297m, with the payout rate rising more than 400 basis points to almost 80%.

"Cost control will allow us to maintain a recurring EBITDA margin around 23%," the company said in the same statement.

Online performance: growth outside the UK and the Netherlands

The online unit, largely the former Kindred, kept GGR almost flat at €1.013m, but online revenues fell 8.2% to €619m after €34m of additional taxes. Excluding the Netherlands and the UK, GGR rose 5.7%, driven by France and the Nordic markets. By contrast, GGR fell 8.6% in the Netherlands and 24.4% in the UK.

The company says a single proprietary sportsbook will cover most markets by the end of 2027 and that a "refocusing of development teams in Europe" is already underway, without providing figures for jobs affected. FDJ United has also started a review of its online markets and non-strategic assets, with conclusions expected "by early 2027 at the latest"; the statement does not name specific markets.

Tax impact and timing comparison

Most of the tax effect was already anticipated: France raised levies from 1 July 2025, increasing the online sports-betting tax from 54.9% to 59.3% of GGR, so 2026 is the first full year with that change. In the Netherlands the rate rose to 37.8% of GGR in January, and in the UK the Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% in April, according to FDJ United.

In February the group estimated the 2026 tax impact at about €90m; in the October statement it now says "more than €70m" without detailing the reason for the adjustment.

Market reaction and next steps

FDJ United shares traded at €19.95 at 10:10 on Thursday, down 5.05% from €21.01, and roughly 15% below the end-2025 close of €23.62, according to Yahoo Finance and ABC Bourse data. JPMorgan cut its price target to €19 on 7 October, citing political and regulatory risks in France ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to Agefi‑Dow Jones.

The company acknowledges that four communications on 2026 guidance have resulted in three cuts, with different explanations on each date: taxes and matches in April; jackpots and heatwaves in July; and now jackpots, winner payouts and footfall. FDJ United reminds that jackpots and sporting results are outside management control and tend to normalise, but stresses that taxes were already reflected in early guidance, placing the recent revisions in the realm of trading.

The group warns that the review of online markets and non-strategic assets, with a horizon in early 2027, will determine whether it should reduce presence in some markets. The nine-month balance shows lottery contributed 58% of group revenues and that FDJ United retains a 61% share of the French market according to the first half report of the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ).