Genius Sports posts first operating profit and raises 2026 guide

Genius Sports reported third-quarter revenue of $269.9 million and recorded on 5 November its first quarterly operating profit, with operating income of $10.4 million, according to its 5 November 2026 release. The company raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $1.015bn–$1.035bn and adjusted EBITDA of $287M–$297M, while net results remained a loss of $15.7 million after interest charges.

Third‑quarter results

Genius Sports disclosed on 5 November revenue of $269.9 million, up 62% from $166.3 million in the same period a year earlier. The company beat consensus of roughly $260 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $87.1 million, above the $85 million guide, putting the adjusted margin at 32.3%, versus 20.4% the prior year. The company also reported quarterly free cash flow of $53.6 million, equal to 61.5% of the quarter’s adjusted EBITDA; however, year‑to‑date free cash flow through nine months remains negative $136.2 million.

Genius now breaks revenue into two segments:

• Betting Technology, Content & Services: $153.0 million, up 33%, driven principally by higher renewal pricing and value‑added services.

• Media Technology, Content & Services: $116.9 million, up 126%, "primarily driven by the acquisition of Legend."

Operating profit but net loss

The company reported operating income of $10.4 million, versus a loss of $25.6 million in the third quarter a year earlier and a loss of $55.6 million in Q2. Genius describes that amount as its "first quarter with operating income."

Interest expense, however, rose to $19.1 million from $0.1 million a year earlier after taking on $825 million of debt during the year; debt at 30 September stood at $787.4 million. As a result, net income was a loss of $15.7 million, an improvement of $13.1 million versus the prior period.

Share‑based compensation fell $10.7 million to $15.2 million.

"I don't speak for the NFL", CEO Mark Locke said on the analyst call when asked about the league's stance on prediction markets.

2026 guidance and outlook

Genius raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $1.015bn–$1.035bn and adjusted EBITDA of $287M–$297M, from a prior guide of $1.005bn–$1.025bn and $285M–$295M. The midpoint of the new range implies an adjusted margin of roughly 28.5%.

The company expects about $260 million of cash at year end, versus $206.5 million at 30 September. Subtracting the nine months already reported, the guide implies Q4 revenue of between $361.7 million and $381.7 million and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of between $123.3 million and $133.3 million. On the call Mark Locke placed the quarter’s margin at about 34.5%, according to the published transcript.

Genius reiterated that the Brazilian provisional measure that would bar online betting and gaming would have minimal 2026 impact because of its contract structure; the company stated this in its 28 September communication. (See note on regulation in [regulation](/regulation).)

Prediction markets and exposure

The release and the call explain that Genius is active in prediction markets through partnerships and the product Prediction.com. The release lists partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi covering content, integrity services and marketing, and notes the September launch of Prediction.com.

Locke described revenue generation in that business as coming from customer acquisition, trading and settlement, and claimed "more than 50 new customers this year." Genius sells data to market makers and also receives a share of proceeds alongside data fees.

The risk disclosure explicitly mentions "providing liquidity in prediction markets" and "potential trading or market‑making losses," language that implies exposure beyond pure data sales.

Genius and Sportradar had previously avoided disclosing concrete revenue figures from prediction markets; Sportradar called its contribution "meaningful" two days before Genius's report, while Locke labelled the category the "biggest opportunity" in the industry without disclosing figures.

Genius also stated that none of its forecasts for 2026, 2027 or 2028 assume the NFL will begin to work with prediction markets. The NFL, whose August rights renewal excluded prediction markets from data and IP rights, retains Genius as its official data distributor. NFL and Premier League rights, which account for the bulk of Genius's fee base, are secured through the end of the decade according to Locke.

What changed with Legend?

The acquisition of Legend boosted the media business and improved margin structure: the Media Technology, Content & Services unit grew 126% and, the company says, was the primary driver of operating margin improvement. The company financed the acquisition with debt, which materially increased interest expense and offset the operating profit on a net basis.

The release notes that the revenue beat—roughly $10 million above guide—and the roughly $2 million improvement in EBITDA have enabled the company to raise the full‑year guide, shifting the revenue midpoint by $10 million and the EBITDA midpoint by $2 million.

Technical conclusion

The first quarterly operating profit of $10.4 million is real but small relative to total revenue; interest tied to the Legend debt absorbed that gain, leaving a net loss. Genius says second‑half free cash flow will exceed $100 million under its year‑end cash target, and it already generated $53.6 million of free cash flow in Q3.

The company has raised its 2026 guidance and strengthened its narrative around prediction markets, but retains explicit risk language on liquidity and market‑making losses, and confirms the NFL is not in its near‑term forecasts.