Hacksaw forecasts Q3 2026 revenue of €57.5m–€58.5m, strong margin

Hacksaw AB said on 12 October that it expects revenue for the third quarter ending 30 September 2026 to be between €57.5 million and €58.5 million, with adjusted EBITDA of roughly €48 million–€49 million, implying a margin of about 83%. The guidance appears in a press release dated 12 October and follows management commentary that market weakness and underperforming titles trimmed the firm's year‑on‑year revenue growth to roughly 11%–12%.

Hacksaw Q3 revenue guidance and headline figures

Hacksaw's estimated top line of €57.5m–€58.5m for Q3 2026 represents an increase from the prior year's reported quarter of €52.0m. The company also expects adjusted EBITDA to be around €48m–€49m, yielding an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 83%. Management said these numbers reflect both continuing market softness and a shortfall in performance from certain game releases.

The guidance was published in a press release dated 12 October and covers the period to 30 September. Hacksaw plans to publish the full Q3 financial statements at 7:30 a.m. CET on 3 November 2026.

Market context and the company's commentary on growth

Hacksaw attributed the narrower year‑on‑year revenue increase — reported at approximately 11%–12% — to the ongoing weakening of the gaming market and to the unsatisfactory performance of some of its titles. At the same time, the company told investors it had nevertheless met internal goals for the year, delivering annual revenue growth above 30% and adjusted EBIT in excess of 80%.

Management framed the quarter as mixed: topline improvement versus the comparable period in 2025, but softer than management had originally planned because of market conditions and product performance.

Market reaction and equity impact

Hacksaw's share price fell sharply on 12 October. By noon CEST the stock had dropped 29.3%, a decline that reduced the company's market capitalisation by SEK 6.9 billion. The press release and the scale of the share‑price move underline investor sensitivity to shortfalls in game performance even when margins remain high.

What the numbers mean for operators and suppliers

The company emphasised the durability of its margin profile: adjusted EBITDA of €48m–€49m on revenues of roughly €58m translates into an ~83% adjusted EBITDA margin. That margin figure is central to Hacksaw's narrative that it can weather a weak market while continuing to invest in distribution and customer acquisition.

For platform partners, operators and suppliers watching revenue and margin dynamics, the combination of modest top‑line growth and very high adjusted margin offers two signals: product performance is now the key lever for restoring investor confidence, and cost structure or pricing currently supports strong profitability even in softer demand.

Management outlook and timetable

Ana Vrabic Verdir, Hacksaw's chief executive officer, signalled confidence in the company's long‑term prospects after the guidance release. Management highlighted continued opportunities to add customers and expand distribution despite the current market headwinds.

Hacksaw will publish a full Q3 report on 3 November 2026 at 7:30 a.m. CET. The October 12 press release served as an interim update to the market ahead of that scheduled publication.

What to watch in the Q3 report

Analysts and counterparties will focus on several items in the November report:

• actual reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA versus the guided €57.5m–€58.5m and €48m–€49m ranges

• reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to statutory EBIT and any one‑off items that affect comparability

• commentary on game performance and product roadmap intended to address the underperforming titles

• cash flow and balance sheet metrics that will determine whether the company maintains its customer acquisition and expansion plans

Investors will also reassess whether the current stock valuation already prices in further downside or any recovery if forthcoming releases regain traction.

Implications for the market and next steps

Hacksaw's guidance underlines how high margins can coexist with narrower growth during a cyclical slowdown. The company says it has met annual targets for revenue growth above 30% and adjusted EBIT greater than 80% despite the weaker quarter; the market's reaction suggests investors want proof that the firm can translate product fixes and new customer wins into sustained top‑line momentum.

The full Q3 financial statements on 3 November will be the next material datapoint. Market participants and partners should use that report to confirm the guided ranges and to evaluate the company's plans for restoring revenue growth.

For immediate reference, the company provided the guidance in the October 12 press release and scheduled the detailed disclosure for 7:30 a.m. CET on 3 November 2026. More context on industry responses will follow once the official figures are published and analysts update their models. For coverage of related sector moves see the news section.