IG Group shares tumble after trading update; Underdog doubles net revenue in Q3

IG Group saw its share price fall by about 25% on Friday 2 October after a trading update on its future subsidiary Underdog failed to reassure investors. The company said that in the three months ended 30 September 2026 revenues fell by around 14% to approximately £240m, and that revenue retention in Q3 was 70%, below the 80% IG had averaged since introducing market‑making optimisation measures.

Overall result and key Q3 figures for IG Group

IG Group said OTC net trading revenue in Q3 2026 was about £155m, down 18% year‑on‑year; however, OTC customer income rose by roughly 8%. As a result of these moves, the company revised its outlook and now expects revenue growth for 2026 in the mid‑single digits.

The firm said less favourable market conditions reduced OTC revenue retention in the quarter. IG Group maintains its expectation of meeting its medium‑term guidance, according to statements by chief executive Breon Corcoran.

Underdog performance in the quarter and its role in the deal

Despite the general weakness, IG Group reported Underdog’s net revenue in Q3 rose by more than 100% year‑on‑year to around $105m. That growth comes ahead of the fourth quarter, which contains the main portion of the 2026 NFL season; IG Group noted the last three months of 2025 accounted for more than a third of Underdog’s revenue that year.

IG Group announced in July it would acquire Underdog in a transaction worth up to $1.3bn, including an initial consideration of $1.1bn. At the time of the announcement IG Group said Underdog was “well positioned” to succeed in the prediction markets space.

Technology and prior purchases by Underdog

Underdog had bought Aristotle Exchange the previous year to build an in‑house technology stack to support its prediction‑markets ambitions. The company started in daily fantasy sports (DFS) and briefly entered online sports betting. After a Series C round in March 2025, Underdog was valued at $1.2bn.

Tech integration and relevance for IG Group

The Aristotle Exchange purchase gives Underdog control over its infrastructure, an asset IG Group sees as relevant when expanding prediction‑related products and managing demand spikes during the NFL season.

Management comments and investor timetable

At a Bank of America conference in September, Underdog chief executive Jeremy Levine praised Breon Corcoran and the deal. Levine said:

"I have a lot of admiration for [Corcoran] and he is obviously one of the standout chief executives, if not the standout, in our sector." — Jeremy Levine

Levine described the acquisition as a relationship based on “shared DNA” and a belief in the joint business potential.

Breon Corcoran, who led Paddy Power Betfair when that firm bought Levine’s previous startup DRAFT in 2017, commented on the results:

"Growth in first‑time trades and active customers remained strong in Q3 2026." — Breon Corcoran

IG Group has scheduled an investor day specifically focused on Underdog for 8 October, where it is expected to address questions about the acquisition and US growth strategy. The investor day will be a key date for attendees and is listed on the company calendar as an upcoming event — [investor day](/events).

Implications for the market and upcoming dates

The takeaways for operators and suppliers are twofold. On one hand Underdog’s numbers show accelerated growth ahead of the most valuable NFL trading window; on the other, the 25% drop in IG Group’s share price highlights market sensitivity to revenue‑retention revisions and perceived integration risk for large assets.

Investors will watch the 8 October investor day for greater transparency on the assumptions behind the initial $1.1bn payment and the maximum $1.3bn price.

What operators and providers should watch

• evolution of OTC revenue retention in coming quarters; IG reported 70% for Q3 versus a historical 80% after optimisation;

• Underdog’s performance through Q4 2026, which contains the bulk of the NFL season; — see coverage in [sports](/sports) for context on seasonality,

• integration of Aristotle Exchange into Underdog’s platform and its impact on scaling capacity; — a technology point of interest for vendors and partners in the [b2b](/b2b) market.

The 8 October investor day and future results will determine whether the market accepts IG Group’s narrative on US expansion and synergy with Underdog. For payments and technology providers, the focus will be whether Underdog sustains its revenue growth and how it handles seasonal demand peaks.