JP Morgan questions Marina Bay Sands EBITDA for Q3 2026
Bank lowers estimate and flags China’s new 20% offshore trust tax as a downside risk
Key Takeaways
- JP Morgan projects an EBITDA of US$680 million for Marina Bay Sands in Q3 2026, below the market consensus of US$693 million.
- China introduced a 20% tax on offshore trust income in July and set 22 October as the deadline to declare unpaid taxes linked to that rule.
- Marina Bay Sands reported a property-adjusted EBITDA of US$689 million in 2Q2026.
- JP Morgan estimates Macau GGR in Q3 2026 fell 4% year‑on‑year and stood at about 85% of 2019 levels.
JP Morgan Securities LLC questioned Marina Bay Sands’ third-quarter performance in Singapore, forecasting an EBITDA of US$680 million for 3Q2026 and warning about the potential impact of China’s recent offshore tax measures. The bank said its forecast is below the market consensus of US$693 million and noted that Marina Bay Sands’ property-adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was US$689 million.
Las Vegas Sands Corp., the parent company of Marina Bay Sands, is due to release its third-quarter results on Wednesday after market close.
Tax risk from China
In July, the Chinese government introduced a 20% tax on offshore trust income, and set Thursday 22 October as the deadline to declare unpaid taxes related to that measure. JP Morgan said the policy has been flagged as a potential headwind for gaming spend both in Singapore and in the Macau market, where Las Vegas Sands operates through its Sands China Ltd unit.
"For Las Vegas Sands, positioning feels heavily negative on Macau (our third-quarter 2026 EBITDA of US$529 million is 6 percent below the Street's), but there's also some question on Singapore regarding fallout from China clamping down on offshore tax collections," wrote analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh.
View on Macau and the reporting season
JP Morgan commented on segmented gross gaming revenue (GGR) data for the third quarter published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) of Macau. The bank said investor sentiment "has gone from bad to worse", because third-quarter 2026 GGR closed down year-on-year by 4% and remained around 85% of 2019 levels.
The bank cited official data that put Macau GGR in the second quarter of 2026 at about 83% of prepandemic levels and in the first quarter at about 87%.
JP Morgan added that, per DICJ, VIP GGR in the third quarter was flat year‑on‑year (with channel checks suggesting a favourable hold), while mass/slot GGR fell 5% year‑on‑year. The bank also noted that expectations for a post-[FIFA] World Cup recovery faded during the quarter and that concerns rose over China’s clampdown on offshore wealth and trusts, as well as the macro environment in China.
Estimates by operator and share shifts
JP Morgan estimated an EBITDA of US$529 million for Las Vegas Sands in 3Q2026, which is 6% below consensus. For Wynn Macau Ltd it estimated EBITDA of US$255 million, roughly 10% below the consensus of US$282 million, mentioning possible "share losses" and an "unfavourable hold".
The bank calculated GGR market share changes for the quarter to 30 September: Sands China +170 basis points sequentially; Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd +160 bps; MGM China Holdings Ltd +20 bps; SJM Holdings Ltd -80 bps; Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd -130 bps; Wynn Macau Ltd -140 bps.
Emilio Navarro, Sector technology correspondent.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is JP Morgan's forecast for Marina Bay Sands' EBITDA in Q3 2026?
JP Morgan forecasts an EBITDA of US$680 million for Marina Bay Sands in Q3 2026, which is below the market consensus of US$693 million and slightly below the property-adjusted EBITDA of US$689 million reported in 2Q2026.
Which Chinese tax measure could affect Marina Bay Sands' revenues and when does it take effect?
China introduced a 20% tax on offshore trust income in July; authorities set Thursday 22 October as the deadline to declare any unpaid taxes related to that measure, which JP Morgan says could act as a headwind for gaming spend.
How did Macau's GGR perform in Q3 2026 according to JP Morgan?
JP Morgan reported that Macau's GGR fell 4% year‑on‑year in Q3 2026 and was roughly 85% of 2019 levels, with VIP flat year‑on‑year and mass/slots down about 5%.
What estimates did JP Morgan give for other Macau operators in Q3 2026?
JP Morgan estimated Las Vegas Sands' Macau EBITDA at US$529 million (6% below consensus) and Wynn Macau's at US$255 million (about 10% below the US$282 million consensus), and reported operator market‑share shifts for the quarter.
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About the author
Emilio Navarro
Industry Technology Correspondent
Emilio Navarro covers the cross-cutting technology and business of iGaming — platforms, data and AI, compliance tooling, affiliate marketing, financial results, and the stories that fit no single rubric. The reports open with the announcement, cite vendors and figures exactly as published, and keep a healthy distance from press-release language. When a supplier unveils a new engine or the advertising rulebook changes, Emilio Navarro reports what genuinely changes.
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