Lula victory points to iGaming staying offshore in Brazil
Blask links election result and provisional measure to weaker online demand
Key Takeaways
- Blask says Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory means iGaming will remain offshore in Brazil for the foreseeable future.
- iGaming demand fell <f0>13.3%</f0> week-on-week in the seven days to 25 October, according to Blask.
- The Blask Index fell from 7.26 million before the ban to <f0>288,000</f0> in the 19–25 October period.
- One month after the veto total iGaming demand had dropped <f1>96%</f1>, while offshore demand remained 9% below pre-veto levels.
Blask said iGaming will remain offshore in Brazil after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's runoff victory on Sunday; the platform reported that iGaming demand in the country fell 13.3% week-on-week in the seven days to 25 October from an already low base. The drop was measured across traffic data and reflects the combined effect of the provisional measure and the election outcome.
What Blask measured
The platform explained that the 13.3% fall in the week to 25 October occurred "as the shutdown is still unwinding" and added: "Presidential elections finished on 25 October, with Lula da Silva as the winner… It means that iGaming will be offshore in the country for a long time." Blask also said: "The Brazilian president did a lot to make [the] Blask Index fall for more than a month."
Blask put the Blask Index reading at 7.26 million before the ban and at 288,000 during the period of 19–25 October, "returning to levels last seen in 2019". One month after the veto overall iGaming demand had fallen 96%.
Regulatory status and market reaction
On 25 September, before the first round on 4 October, Lula da Silva, acting as president, issued a provisional measure that bans the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting in Brazil. Operators with a local base and licence were required to disconnect on 6 October, although the final ban needs congressional approval and has been challenged before the Supreme Court of Brazil. The regulatory situation remains fluid and is being watched by industry participants and partners in the [regulation](/regulation) ecosystem.
Blask added that demand for offshore suppliers remained 9% below its pre-veto level, challenging the expectation of a mass shift to unlicensed operators. The analysis focuses on the evolution of the Brazilian market and its traffic data, according to Blask.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Blask say about the electoral impact on iGaming in Brazil?
Blask said Lula's victory means "iGaming will be offshore in the country for a long time." The platform linked that effect to the 25 October election result and to the provisional measure issued on 25 September.
How much did iGaming demand fall after the ban and when was it measured?
Demand fell 13.3% week-on-week in the seven days to 25 October, according to Blask. Additionally, one month after the ban total demand had declined 96%.
How did the Blask Index change after the provisional measure?
The Blask Index fell from 7.26 million before the ban to <f0>288,000</f0> during 19–25 October, a level Blask says last occurred in 2019.
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About the author
Emilio Navarro
Industry Technology Correspondent
Emilio Navarro covers the cross-cutting technology and business of iGaming — platforms, data and AI, compliance tooling, affiliate marketing, financial results, and the stories that fit no single rubric. The reports open with the announcement, cite vendors and figures exactly as published, and keep a healthy distance from press-release language. When a supplier unveils a new engine or the advertising rulebook changes, Emilio Navarro reports what genuinely changes.
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