Macau CE Sam Hou Fai Rules Out Cutting 2026 GGR Forecast Despite Q3 Weakness

Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said on Saturday, 10 October 2026, that there is currently no consideration being given to lowering the government’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP$236 billion (US$29.2 billion). He made the remark while attending the Government Headquarters Open Day and acknowledged recent year-on-year declines but insisted the administration will continue monitoring performance before any revision.

Why the government is standing by the MOP$236 billion GGR forecast

Sam Hou Fai set the government's 2026 headline target at MOP$236 billion last year. GGR for January to September 2026 inclusive was MOP$187.1 billion (US$23.1 billion), leaving a shortfall of MOP$48.9 billion (US$6.05 billion) against the full-year projection. To close that gap the market must average MOP$16.3 billion (US$2.02 billion) per month from October to December.

The administration's official monthly average implied by the MOP$236 billion target is MOP$19.67 billion (US$2.43 billion). For the first nine months combined the actual monthly average has been MOP$20.79 billion (US$2.57 billion); only June and September fell below the government’s required monthly figure.

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau has posted year-on-year declines for four consecutive months entering October, a run the Chief Executive acknowledged as making comparisons difficult. He said the October figure will be crucial in assessing whether full-year GGR can meet expectations.

What Sam Hou Fai told media at the Government Headquarters Open Day

Speaking to local media while attending the Government Headquarters Open Day, Sam Hou Fai described the recent reduction in GGR as not yet conclusively attributable to any single cause. He outlined three possible explanations and said the government has reached no definitive conclusion:

• a cyclical phase in gaming demand;

• spill-over effects from adjustments in the external economy and neighbouring stock and real estate markets; or

• the possibility that the gaming industry has reached a relatively high plateau.

"Whether the reasons behind the decline represent a cyclical phase, are impacts brought about by adjustments in the external economy and neighboring stock and real estate markets, or whether the gaming industry has already reached a relatively high plateau, we have no definitive conclusion at this time and will continue to monitor it closely," Sam Hou Fai said.

He reiterated there are currently no plans to alter the forecast and framed October's numbers as the immediate test of that stance.

The arithmetic behind the deadline: October to December targets

The government’s mechanics are straightforward. With MOP$187.1 billion logged through September, the remaining MOP$48.9 billion must be produced over three months. That equates to the MOP$16.3 billion monthly requirement for October, November and December.

Analysts and operators will watch three indicators in the coming weeks: October’s headline GGR, month-on-month recovery or decline in visitation and VIP play, and any signs of demand shifting to competing leisure sectors. Operators have historically been able to deliver strong year-end months in Macau, and the government described the MOP$16.3 billion monthly target as something the market should comfortably hit.

Historical context: government revisions and actual outcomes

The Macau government has altered its GGR projections before. In June 2025 it revised the FY25 forecast down from MOP$240 billion (US$29.7 billion) to MOP$228 billion (US$28.2 billion). Despite that mid-year adjustment, Macau’s actual full-year GGR for 2025 reached MOP$247.4 billion (US$30.6 billion), an outcome that the administration will recall when weighing whether to defend the 2026 number.

That precedent gives the government latitude to stand pat in October, because a second-half rebound has previously outperformed mid-year expectations.

Market and policy implications for operators and regulators

The Chief Executive’s public position removes immediate pressure for a policy response from the Macau government or the casino regulator, at least until the October data arrives. Keeping the forecast unchanged preserves a stable expectation for licence holders, investors and adjacent sectors such as hospitality and retail.

Operators, conversely, will now treat October as a performance deadline. If October fails to show recovery, market participants should expect renewed debate about demand drivers and possibly a formal forecast review. The government's approach to monitoring and communication will be relevant to market sentiment in the near term.

What to watch next

The obvious immediate datapoint is October’s GGR. Beyond that, watch for monthly releases for November and December to see whether the three-month run-rate can meet MOP$16.3 billion. Also monitor visitor arrivals, VIP segment flows and external-market signals in neighbouring stock and real estate markets that the Chief Executive referenced.

Macau’s policy choice today is to await those signals rather than pre-emptively adjusting the 2026 target. That leaves the market to produce the numbers and the government to respond if they do not materialise.