Macau government keeps 2026 GGR forecast despite four months of declines

The Macau government is keeping its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for 2026 unchanged despite four consecutive months of year‑on‑year declines, and has asked that October be observed before opening any review. The official projection for 2026 remains MOP$236 000 000 000 (US$29.2bn) and, between January and September, cumulative GGR was MOP$187.1bn (US$23.1bn), leaving a shortfall of MOP$48.9bn (US$6.05bn) against the target.

## Macau GGR forecast and the shortfall calculation

The government’s annual target for 2026 equates to a monthly average of MOP$19.67bn (US$2.43bn). After the first nine months of the year the actual monthly average stands at MOP$20.79bn (US$2.57bn). Despite that average being above the target, the cumulative total to September is insufficient because some months fell below the required level: only June and September recorded GGR below the required average.

To close the MOP$48.9bn gap between October and December, monthly receipts would need to average MOP$16.3bn (US$2.02bn). The Executive considered that level achievable and said the market should be able to meet it; Sam Hou Fai made the remark while attending the Government Open Day at the government headquarters on Saturday.

## Sam Hou Fai and the Macau government’s position on the GGR forecast

Sam Hou Fai was explicit about the decision: there is currently no consideration to lower the GGR forecast for 2026. In remarks to local media he noted that year‑on‑year comparisons have been difficult in recent months and described the market’s recent trajectory.

"From 2023 to 2025, GGR maintained steady growth, but it began to pull back in the second quarter of this year," said Sam Hou Fai, stressing that October will be a key month to assess the trend.

The chief executive added there is no definitive conclusion yet on whether the decline is part of a cycle, a response to external shocks in neighbouring economies and markets — including equities and real estate — or whether the gaming industry has already reached a relatively high level. He confirmed the government will continue to monitor the data closely.

## Monthly data and operating context

The specific numbers cited by the government are:

• Projection for 2026 GGR: MOP$236bn (US$29.2bn).

• GGR accumulated January–September 2026: MOP$187.1bn (US$23.1bn).

• Remaining difference to reach the target: MOP$48.9bn (US$6.05bn).

• Target monthly average for 2026: MOP$19.67bn (US$2.43bn).

• Actual monthly average over the nine months: MOP$20.79bn (US$2.57bn).

• Months below the target between January and September: June and September.

These figures explain why the government has not changed the projection: the actual monthly average to September still exceeds the target average, and the administration trusts that demand patterns in the final quarter will allow the gap to close.

## Precedent: 2025 forecast revision and the final outcome

The Macau government already has experience revising projections. In June 2025 it cut its forecast for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) from MOP$240bn (US$29.7bn) to MOP$228bn (US$28.2bn). Despite that correction, the actual 2025 GGR finished at MOP$247.4bn (US$30.6bn), above both the revised and the original forecasts.

That precedent explains some of the official caution: the Executive reminds stakeholders that figures can move contrary to projections and that revisions do not always predict the final outcome.

## Why the market views October as decisive for the forecast

Operators, investors and analysts will treat October as a reference point. If October GGR shows a recovery compared with the weaker months, the likelihood that the annual target is met without adjustment will rise. If October confirms the downward trend, the government will have more data to weigh a possible correction, although there are no plans now to implement one.

From an operational perspective, external factors cited by Sam Hou Fai — movements in neighbouring equity and real‑estate markets — are variables hard to isolate, but the government continues continuous monitoring of macroeconomic conditions and tourist demand.

## Implications for operators and stakeholders

For concessionaires and suppliers the government stance provides short‑term certainty: the official figure remains a budgetary and regulatory reference. At the same time, the 2025 revision precedent and the higher final result show that projections can lag real market dynamics. More on industry implications can be found in the [casino](/casino) section.

The published figures provide clear parameters for planning offers, promotions and capacity management in the last quarter: reaching an average of MOP$16.3bn per month between October and December would close the gap with the forecast. The sector’s attention is now on the official publication of October GGR; the market will review results and commentary in the coming weeks in [news](/news).