Macau: Industry EBITDA fell 10.6% YoY in 3Q 2026, Seaport says
Seaport expects EBITDA margin to drop ~180 bps; 3Q GGR was MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44bn).
Key Takeaways
- Seaport Research Partners estimates Macau industry EBITDA fell 10.6% year on year in 3Q 2026.
- Seaport expects the industry EBITDA margin to decline about 180 basis points year on year, with a possible 50 bp rise quarter on quarter.
- 3Q GGR was MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), down 1.3% sequentially and 3.8% year on year.
- Mass GGR reached about MOP43.31 billion (71.9% of total), down 5.2% year on year.
- Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd were the leading share gainers; Wynn, Melco and SJM lost share.
Seaport Research Partners estimates that the Macau casino industry EBITDA fell 10.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2026. The firm said in a memo on Monday that the industry EBITDA margin for July–September is likely to show a decline of around 180 basis points year on year, although it could rise 50 basis points versus the prior quarter.
Summary of results and forecasts
Total gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau for the third quarter was MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), a sequential decline of 1.3% versus the second quarter, which totaled MOP61.03 billion, and a year‑on‑year decrease of 3.8%. Seaport provided a preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter: GGR projected at ‑0.7% year on year and EBITDA down 3.4%, according to Vitaly Umansky.
"The fourth quarter is estimated to face continued headwinds, but not as severe as in the third quarter, with GGR estimated to fall 0.7% year on year and EBITDA down 3.4%," wrote Vitaly Umansky.
The mass‑market segment, which includes slot machine play, recorded GGR of nearly MOP43.31 billion in the quarter, a decline of 5.2% versus the same period a year earlier. Mass play accounted for 71.9% of the quarter's total GGR, versus 73.0% in 3Q 2025. The data come from the local regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Operator performance
Seaport anticipated that Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd were likely the biggest gainers in market share both year on year and sequentially during the period, followed by MGM China Holdings Ltd. The firm indicated that Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd and SJM Holdings Ltd recorded sequential and annual share losses.
"Share gains, control of operating expenses and optimisation of reinvestment to players and commissions are now critical differentiators (in a temporarily slower growth market)," Umansky added.
Seaport also noted that the Singapore casino market exhibited "considerable weakness" in the third quarter, partly attributable to the same demand softness seen in Macau and a decline in high‑value play, as well as lower activity linked to the FIFA World Cup which ended in mid‑July. Singapore continues to operate a duopoly formed by Marina Bay Sands (operated by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp, the parent of Sands China) and Resorts World Sentosa (operated by Genting Singapore Ltd).
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the estimated decline in industry EBITDA in 3Q 2026?
Seaport Research Partners estimated the Macau casino industry EBITDA fell 10.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, reporting the figure in a memo published on Monday and noting a projected margin decline.
What was Macau’s total GGR in 3Q 2026?
Total GGR in Macau for 3Q 2026 was MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), representing a 1.3% sequential decline versus 2Q and a 3.8% year‑on‑year decrease, according to Seaport and the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Which operators gained market share in July–September 2026?
Seaport said Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd were likely the largest gainers in market share both year on year and sequentially, followed by MGM China Holdings Ltd, while Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd and SJM Holdings Ltd lost share.
How did the mass segment perform in 3Q 2026?
The mass segment generated nearly MOP43.31 billion in GGR, a 5.2% year‑on‑year decline, and accounted for 71.9% of total GGR in the quarter, down from 73.0% in 3Q 2025, per the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
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Emilio Navarro
Industry Technology Correspondent
Emilio Navarro covers the cross-cutting technology and business of iGaming — platforms, data and AI, compliance tooling, affiliate marketing, financial results, and the stories that fit no single rubric. The reports open with the announcement, cite vendors and figures exactly as published, and keep a healthy distance from press-release language. When a supplier unveils a new engine or the advertising rulebook changes, Emilio Navarro reports what genuinely changes.
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