Macau reports daily GGR of US$90.2M for Oct 5–11, UBS says

UBS said gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos averaged roughly MOP729 million (US$90.2 million) per day between October 5 and 11, despite recent weakness in high-end play. The daily pace moderated from the near-MOP1.0 billion seen in the first four days of the October Golden Week holiday period, but remained “well above” the circa MOP602 million daily average UBS cited for September.

## H2 Daily performance detail and comparison with September

UBS recorded that September GGR fell 1.2% year-on-year. With the latest data, UBS’s estimate for the average daily GGR in the first 11 days of October rose to approximately MOP836 million. That compares with around MOP804 million per day during the first 12 days of October in the prior year.

UBS noted the 2025 comparison period was distorted by a typhoon on October 5 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, which created a low comparable base for 2025.

## H2 Player segmentation and the taxation effect on trusts

UBS attributed some of the premium-segment weakness observed in September to the implementation of new Chinese rules on individual income tax applicable to offshore trusts. According to UBS, segment behaviour was as follows:

• Mass daily revenue run-rate rose between 35% and 38% month-on-month.

• VIP daily volume run-rate increased between 40% and 45% month-on-month.

• VIP hold was 3.1% to 3.4%.

UBS commented that the month-to-date performance has been achieved “despite concerns around tax repayments from offshore trusts.”

"Between the segments, mass daily revenue run-rate was up 35 to 38 percent month-on-month, while VIP volume daily run-rate was up 40 to 45 percent month-on-month, at VIP hold of 3.1 to 3.4 percent," UBS said.

## H2 Market consensus and the projection for the rest of October

The sell-side consensus cited by UBS pointed to an average daily GGR of approximately MOP777 million for all of October, which would be broadly flat year-on-year. That projection implies a run-rate of circa MOP744 million a day for the 20 remaining days of the month — a scenario UBS described as challenging.

## H2 Operational context: Golden Week and events that distort comparables

The 2025 comparison is not uniform: the typhoon on October 5 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6 created atypical days that reduced last year’s comparable base. By contrast, Golden Week typically concentrates spending and activity. UBS observed that, even with a moderation from the early holiday-week peaks, the level seen between October 5 and 11 remained above the September average.

## H2 Risks for the rest of October and operator focus

Risks flagged by UBS include pressure from potential tax repayments tied to offshore structures and the sustainability of the pace after conventional high-demand days. The market expects operators to monitor closely:

1. The evolution of VIP volume and its effective hold.

2. Mass-segment behaviour on non-holiday weekdays.

3. Any additional impact from the interpretation and enforcement of the Chinese tax rules on offshore trusts.

## H2 What the industry should watch

For casino managers, investors and suppliers across the value chain, UBS’s figures imply two clear readings: the first half of the month showed a recovery versus September, but turning that start into a monthly average above MOP744 million per day requires the second half to keep a strong pace. Authorities and operators will also follow the narrative on taxation of offshore trusts and its effect on premium demand.

"The GGR run-rate of circa MOP744 million a day for the 20 remaining days of the month, which looks challenging," the institution said.

The data presented by UBS serve as a short-term market reference and a way to calibrate revenue expectations as more October days accrue.