Seaport expects Macau GGR to grow just 0.9% in 2026

Seaport Research Partners expects year‑on‑year gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth in Macau for 2026 of 0.9%, and forecasts a 6.1% decline for November. The broker’s latest note was published on Sunday after the official October figures.

Official results and key forecasts

The local government reported that October GGR fell 10.0% year‑on‑year to MOP21.68 billion (US$2.921 billion). Seaport said the October result broadly matched its estimates and was the largest annual moderation in the past four months; the [official results](/news) informed its update.

Seaport keeps its annual growth forecast for 2026 at 0.9%, compared with the local government’s estimate of MOP236 billion (US$29.21 billion) for the year. Macau’s GGR in 2025 was MOP247.40 billion. The broker also projects 3% for 2027.

Demand dynamics and segments

Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, attributes the weakness in the high‑value segment to macro and regulatory factors: softer macroeconomic conditions in China, a falling equity market and Chinese tax enforcement on offshore trusts that affects high‑net‑worth individuals, which he says has led some big bettors to delay visits.

Seaport estimated a low hold in VIP play in October. Its analysis showed VIP GGR had fallen more than 35% year‑on‑year, while mass GGR recorded a decline of low single digits year‑on‑year. The firm also noted that, versus third‑quarter market shares, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd was the largest share gainer and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd the largest loser.

Valuations and margins

Seaport concludes that valuations of gaming stocks with Macau exposure “remain generally undemanding” and that short‑term catalysts are lacking; this assessment is relevant to readers tracking the sector’s debt and equity outlooks and appears in the broker’s [b2b coverage](/b2b).

In a separate note, Texas Capital Securities warned that nominal GGR contraction combined with high player reinvestment rates and promotional policies could keep pressure on margins. Analyst David Bain said Macau industry EBITDA margins have compressed to the mid‑20% range, down from the low‑to‑mid‑30s pre‑pandemic.