The fall of mass baccarat in Macau dragged third-quarter GGR

Mass and premium-mass baccarat in Macau generated MOP33,612 million in the third quarter of 2026, a 7.9% decline from MOP36,496 million in the same period a year earlier and a 4.4% drop versus the second quarter, according to the quarterly table from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). That MOP2,884 million loss in that line exceeds the total fall in casino GGR in Macau, which declined by MOP2,355 million to MOP60,215 million, a 3.8% year-on-year decrease.

Breakdown by product

The DICJ separates “VIP Baccarat” from “Baccarat” (the line that covers mass and premium-mass). In the third quarter:

• The “Baccarat” line (non-VIP, which includes premium-mass) recorded MOP33,612 million, -7.9% year-on-year, a drop of MOP2,884 million.

• “VIP Baccarat” stood at MOP16,906 million, effectively flat with a 0.1% year-on-year rise and a 6.3% increase versus the second quarter.

• Slot machines increased 18.8% to MOP4,091 million, with an unchanged count of 12,000 machines.

• Other table games, led by sic bo, totaled MOP5,606 million, a 2.4% decline.

Combined, the two baccarat lines fell 5.4% to MOP50,518 million and still account for 83.9% of casino GGR. The share of non-VIP baccarat in casino GGR moved from 58.3% to 55.8%.

What explains the gap with total GGR

Casino GGR for the quarter was MOP60,215 million, -3.8% year-on-year and -1.3% versus the second quarter; including lotteries, total gaming revenue was MOP60,415 million, -3.7%. Within the movement, the MOP646 million gain in slots was the largest counterweight to the mass baccarat collapse, but it amounted to less than one quarter of the loss at mass tables.

The DICJ kept the table count at 6,000, the same as a year earlier. The September monthly figure closed with a 1.2% drop to MOP18.1 billion, consistent with the quarterly reading.

Trend during the year

The quarterly series shows an accelerating weakening of the mass segment. In 2026 the pattern was:

• First quarter: non-VIP baccarat grew 6.5% year-on-year.

• Second quarter: it fell 1.2%.

• Third quarter: it fell 7.9%.

In the nine-month cumulative, mass baccarat is down 1.0%, while VIP is up 9.9%. Casino GGR for nine months is up 3.2% to MOP187,116 million.

The decline is not explained by the closure of satellite casinos: Macau had 20 casinos at the end of 2025 versus 28 a year earlier, but the mass growth in the first quarter occurred without those satellites. SJM Group’s activity in the first half showed part of the satellite business moving to its own casinos. The prior year was also affected by casino closures in September 2025 due to Super Typhoon Ragasa.

Causes cited by analysts and key market figures

Seaport Research Partners attributes the weakness to softer Chinese macro conditions and increased tax enforcement on offshore trusts for high-net-worth individuals, according to Inside Asian Gaming. A Citigroup survey in September found premium-mass betting was 45% lower.

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said on 10 October that the government had not considered lowering its 2026 estimate of MOP236 billion and that the October figure would be crucial.

"The government had given no consideration to lowering its estimate of MOP236 billion for 2026; the October figure will be crucial," said Sam Hou Fai.

Analysts are already adjusting forecasts: J.P. Morgan cut its annual forecast to MOP249 billion, 1% above 2025, and expects fourth-quarter GGR to fall 6%; Seaport Research Partners projects a 5% drop in Q4. Operators have upcoming results dates: Las Vegas Sands will publish results on 21 October and Wynn Resorts on 5 November.

What it means for revenue structure and the budget

Licensees rebuilt their model around the premium-mass player after the demise of the junkets; that clientele is included in the DICJ’s “Baccarat” line. The 7.9% decline hits the segment for which operators have paid rising commissions, posing a margin problem on a cost base designed for growth.

The budget estimate of MOP236 billion for 2026 requires only MOP48.9 billion in Q4, versus MOP66.1 billion in the same period a year earlier, so the government has not cut its figure and, for now, that decision carries no immediate cost.

Next reading: October and the earnings calls

The third quarter exposes that the slowdown is a premium-mass problem rather than a broad-market one. October data, expected in early November, and operator commentary during the results season will indicate whether the segment is in a temporary pause or a more durable readjustment. Upcoming corporate presentations will offer guidance on who lost share and by how much.