UBS: Macau daily GGR averaged MOP729m (US$90.2m) on Oct 5–11

UBS reported that Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaged approximately MOP729 million (US$90.2 million) per day from October 5 to October 11, based on the bank’s channel checks conducted around the October Golden Week period. That run-rate moderated from roughly MOP1.0 billion a day during the first four days of the holiday, yet remained above the bank’s cited September daily average of circa MOP602 million.

UBS channel checks and the October run-rate for Macau GGR

UBS compiled its October estimates from proprietary channel checks and presented a daily average of about MOP729 million for October 5–11. The bank then calculated an estimated average daily GGR for the first 11 days of October of approximately MOP836 million. UBS compared that to about MOP804 million a day during the first 12 days of October last year, and noted that the 2025 comparison period was distorted by a typhoon on October 5 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, which created a low base for year-on-year comparisons.

“The latest month-to-date performance had nonetheless been achieved in spite of concerns surrounding tax clawback from offshore trusts,” UBS said in its note.

UBS also emphasised that Macau’s official reporting showed a 1.2 percent year-on-year decline in GGR for September, a figure the bank had previously linked to softness in premium segments after the rollout of Chinese individual income tax rules applicable to offshore trusts.

How the October figures compare with Golden Week and September

The bank’s channel checks show a clear intramonth swing. During the first four days of the Golden Week holiday the daily run-rate was approximately MOP1.0 billion. That level eased in the following week of October 5–11 to the MOP729 million daily average UBS published.

UBS framed the October early-month outcome against September’s performance and last year’s holiday-affected comparison. The September daily average UBS cited was approximately MOP602 million. Officially, Macau casino GGR fell 1.2 percent year-on-year in September, a number the bank uses to explain part of the market dynamics heading into October.

Segment-level dynamics: mass versus VIP

UBS provided month-on-month movement for core segments rather than absolute segment totals. The bank reported that mass daily revenue run-rate was up 35–38 percent month-on-month, while VIP volume daily run-rate was up 40–45 percent month-on-month, with VIP hold estimated at 3.1–3.4 percent. UBS framed those gains as occurring even though premium play had shown signs of softness earlier.

These segment indicators are internal run-rate measures from UBS’s checks and were used to support the wider daily-average calculations the bank presented for the October period.

Consensus and the challenge for the remainder of October

UBS summarised sell-side consensus that points to an average daily GGR of approximately MOP777 million for the whole of October, a level the market expects to be broadly flat year-on-year. To reach that consensus, UBS said the implied run-rate for the remaining 20 days of October would need to be roughly MOP744 million a day, which the bank described as challenging in light of the post-holiday moderation it observed.

UBS highlighted two factors that shape that challenge: a stronger early-October Golden Week performance that may not be sustained across the rest of the month, and continuing market sensitivity to tax-related concerns tied to offshore trusts, which the bank cited explicitly.

Market context and reporting references

UBS referenced prior commentary tying September weakness in premium segments to the implementation of Chinese individual income tax rules governing offshore trusts; that linkage was previously reported by GGRAsia. UBS noted that the 2025 comparison base included discrete events—specifically a typhoon and the Mid-Autumn Festival—that reduced last year’s early-October activity and therefore complicated simple year-on-year comparisons.

Where consensus estimates differ from UBS’s short-run checks, the distinction comes down to the assumed run-rate for the balance of October. UBS’s warning that sustaining a MOP744 million daily run-rate for the remaining days of the month looks challenging is effectively a caution that the market’s average-of-month forecasts rely on an uplift that may not materialise outside holiday windows.

What operators and analysts will watch next

Analysts and operators will be monitoring three concrete indicators over the coming weeks:

1. the realised daily GGR published by Macau’s authorities for the remainder of October against the implied MOP744 million run-rate UBS flagged;

2. VIP hold and VIP volume trends versus UBS’s run-rate bands of 40–45 percent month-on-month and the stated 3.1–3.4 percent hold estimate;

3. any further market reaction to tax-clawback concerns tied to offshore trusts and how that affects high-end player behaviour.

If the post-Golden Week softening persists, sell-side consensus for October’s average could drift lower, UBS suggested.

Quotations and final assessment

UBS framed the early-October outcome as a market that produced respectable headline daily averages despite headwinds. The bank’s channel checks deliver a run-rate snapshot that sits between a strong holiday opening and a softer post-holiday week, leaving the full-month outlook dependent on sustained activity in the remaining days of October.

GGRAsia provided prior reporting on the tax-related headwinds UBS mentions; market participants will watch official daily releases and operator disclosures for confirmation of the trajectory UBS’s checks imply.