MGM: Macao strength and Osaka prospect support outlook, analysts say

MGM Resorts International had a buffer in Macao against weakness in its US operations, and the resort-casino project in Osaka, Japan, remains a longer-term growth driver, according to several analyst reports published after the third-quarter results. The reports, dated after the Q3 2026 filing, also highlight margin pressure in Macao from higher player reinvestment and operating costs, and the still-substantial capital contributions required for the Japan project. See the third-quarter filings in our [news](/news) coverage for more detail.

Performance in Macao

The regional unit, MGM China Holdings Ltd, achieved a record 17.1 percent share of Macao gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the third quarter, according to JP Morgan and Texas Capital Securities. Texas Capital also said the operator's share reached 19.2 percent in September, while noting that a favourable game hold contributed to that quarterly performance.

Texas Capital wrote in a Thursday note:

"While the third quarter of 2026 share partially benefited from high hold (luck factor), MGM market share momentum clearly continues, in our view." — Texas Capital Securities

The firm highlighted that MGM China acts as a buffer to weaker operational trends in the US, supported by access to premium-mass customers across Greater China and a customer base distinct from the company's US properties.

MGM China lifted its quarterly net revenue by roughly 5 percent year-on-year to US$1.14 billion. Adjusted EBITDAR, reported by the US parent, fell 7 percent from the prior year to US$264 million.

Seaport Research Partners noted that property EBITDA for MGM China, before license fees, rose 0.6 percent year-on-year. On a VIP-hold-adjusted basis, that measure increased 4.7 percent; the broker also mentioned a favourable retention in the mass-market segment.

The report added that during October's Golden Week visitor volumes to MGM China's two properties rose 10 percent year-on-year. It estimated MGM's GGR share for October in the low 17 percent range, projecting a moderation to around 16 percent in 2027 due to competition.

Liquidity and leverage

CreditSights estimated in its Thursday report that MGM China generated positive free cash flow between US$230 million and US$240 million in the third quarter, supported by lower capital expenditure and improved property EBITDA. The firm said the operator's net leverage had fallen to 1.36 times trailing 12-month EBITDA, from 1.44 times at the end of June, and that it expected positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter as well.

Progress and financing of MGM Osaka

On the Q3 earnings call, CEO and President Bill Hornbuckle said the MGM Osaka project, with a cost of JPY1.51 trillion (US$9.56 billion), was approximately 11 percent complete and “remained on schedule and on budget” for a 2030 opening. In the same call, CFO Jonathan Halkyard said the company had spent JPY114 billion on the project to date.

Halkyard added that the group expected to contribute another JPY150 billion to JPY160 billion — roughly US$1 billion — in each of 2027 and 2028, completing its financing commitments.

JP Morgan valued the Japan project as carrying substantial long-term value, although its opening falls outside the investment horizon of many public investors. Seaport Research Partners acknowledged long-term value in MGM Osaka but currently assigns no value to the project in its MGM Resorts valuation. CBRE Equity Research also identified MGM Osaka as a significant long-term growth source, alongside the group's digital businesses, in a context of renewed attention to operating fundamentals after the withdrawal of the proposed People Inc. acquisition.