Stake wins São Paulo injunction to resume Brazil operations until 25 Oct 2026

Stake Brasil secured a partial preliminary injunction on 8 October 2026 allowing it to continue operating in Brazil despite President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's provisional measure that banned online fixed-odds betting and casino games. The provisional measure was signed on 25 September 2026 and ordered licensed operators offline from 6 October 2026; the court kept Stake's authorisation in force until 25 October 2026 or until a further judicial determination.

The injunction and the court order

Judge Cristiane Farias Rodrigues dos Santos of the Ninth Federal Civil Court of São Paulo issued the injunction on Thursday, 8 October 2026. The ruling prevents authorities from blocking or redirecting the stake.bet.br domain while the injunction stands and bars sanctions against Stake Brasil for operating subject to the court's conditions.

The judge declined Stake's two broader requests: to suspend the provisional measure entirely and to allow the operator to continue until its authorisation naturally expires at the end of 2029. That second request remains under judicial review on the merits.

Conditions attached to the temporary authorisation

The court attached 12 conditions to Stake's injunction. Key obligations set out in the decision include maintaining identity verification procedures; prohibiting bets placed with funds from social welfare programmes; stopping new promotional campaigns and customer acquisition; permitting players to withdraw account balances; and holding sufficient funds to cover those withdrawals. The operator must continue to comply with the other requirements already in force under its authorisation.

Background: Lula's provisional measure and the immediate shutdown

President Lula's provisional measure, published on 25 September 2026, banned the offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting and online casino games with effect from 6 October 2026. The measure terminated the regulated market that began under Lula's administration in January 2025 and specified that licence holders would receive no compensation and no refund of their BRL30,000,000 (£4.5m) licence fees.

Under the provisional measure, the ban took immediate effect but requires congressional approval within 120 days to become permanent. The Ministry of Justice and Public Security reported that 187 of the 188 previously authorised sites had ceased operations after the measure came into force on 6 October.

Stake Brasil's response and legal argument

Stake Brasil issued a statement following the ruling, stressing the company's compliance with licensing requirements and the fee payment it made. The operator said the court "recognised that an authorisation obtained by fulfilling all legal requirements, paying the [licence] fee and making significant investments confers a legal position that cannot be suppressed without due consideration," and added it had "fully complied" with the measure's obligations since publication and would continue to do so.

"By recognising that an authorisation obtained by fulfilling all legal requirements, paying the [licence] fee and making significant investments confers a legal position that cannot be suppressed without due consideration, the court reaffirmed the importance of legal certainty and the stability of rules," Stake Brasil said in a statement.

The company also told the court it believed it was the first licensed operator to obtain this type of injunction in the current dispute.

Political timing and the run-off election

The provisional measure must be approved by Brazil's Congress within 120 days to stand permanently. Lawmakers are not expected to debate the measure until after the presidential election run-off on 25 October 2026 — the same day Stake's injunction is due to expire.

The first round of the presidential contest took place on 4 October 2026. No candidate won an outright majority: Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the vote and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 45.16%.

Market impact estimates and industry expectations

Independent consultancies have set wide-ranging estimates for the market consequences if the ban persists. H2 Gambling Capital forecast as much as BRL30bn (£4.3bn) could shift into the illegal market as a result of the shutdown. Regulus Partners produced a markedly different outlook, suggesting there is an 85% chance the shutdown will last only a few weeks or months rather than becoming a long-term closure.

What operators and advisers will watch next

The immediate questions facing operators, advisers and investors are procedural and timing-related: whether the injunction is extended, whether other licensees seek similar relief, and how Congress and the incoming or continuing administration treat the provisional measure after the run-off. Compliance teams will monitor whether the Ministry of Justice and Public Security challenges the injunction and how courts treat the suspended portions of the measure on the merits.

Legal teams and platform providers should also note the injunction's specific compliance conditions. Maintaining identity checks, segregating customer funds for withdrawal, and pausing marketing activity are operational steps operators must sustain while the court's order remains in force.

Where to follow developments

Readers tracking this dispute for regulatory or commercial exposure should watch subsequent filings in the Ninth Federal Civil Court of São Paulo and statements from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. Coverage of legislative activity on the provisional measure will resume after the presidential run-off and may determine whether the ban becomes permanent or is overturned. For broader regulatory context see our analysis section on regulation and recent coverage in news.