Brazil could lose up to €13.14bn in taxes from Provisional Measure No. 1394

Provisional Measure No. 1394, which suspended the regulated online gambling market in Brazil, may cause a fiscal loss of BRL 73 000 millones (about €13.14 mil millones) over the next four years, according to a study by LCA Consultores published after the measure took effect. The analysis ties the projected revenue shortfall to the shutdown of regulated operations and also estimates direct effects on employment, wages and sports sponsorship.

Estimated fiscal losses from Provisional Measure No. 1394

LCA Consultores quantifies the potential fiscal loss at approximately €13.14 mil millones over a four-year horizon after suspension of the regulated market. The study uses the Brazilian-reais equivalent of BRL 73 000 millones to express the domestic impact on tax receipts.

The report locates most of the harm in reduced activity by companies that operated under licence, with effects on corporate tax receipts, withholdings and other taxes linked to the regulated activity.

Employment and wages affected by suspension of the regulated market

The study warns of job losses tied to the measure. It estimates that around 10 000 empleos directos could be lost, together with 5 500 empleos indirectos. Wages associated with direct employment in the sector total about BRL 460 millones al año.

Those positions include operational, commercial and technical roles at companies that provided services within the regulated framework. The described annual wage loss is used to estimate the aggregate effect on consumption and social contributions.

Risk of migration to illegal sites and claims for paid licences

LCA Consultores warns that the most active users of licensed-market companies' services will be forced to migrate to illegal sites after licensed platforms close, losing the protections previously offered. The report notes that affected companies could claim up to BRL 2 550 millones in compensation for licence fees paid previously.

The expected migration to operators outside the regulated regime results in a loss of traceability, player protection and tax collection capacity.

Impact on sports sponsorship and funding for the Serie A

Regulated gambling companies made significant contributions to professional sport this year. LCA Consultores records contributions in excess of BRL 1 100 millones (approx. €195.25 millones) destined for the Brazilian Serie A in 2026. The suspension of operations would end that funding stream, directly affecting the league and beneficiary clubs.

This effect adds to the fiscal and employment losses and represents an additional channel through which the measure alters the economy linked to the professional sport ecosystem.

Political context and electoral calendar surrounding the measure

Provisional Measure No. 1394 can be revoked by the President or annulled by the National Congress. The study text recalls that upcoming political decisions will be relevant: Brazil holds presidential elections in October 2026.

After the first round held on 4 de octubre de 2026, the report indicates that President Lula is trailing Flavio Bolsonaro by 2%. The second round is scheduled for 25 de octubre de 2026. The electoral outcome could condition the persistence or withdrawal of the measure.

Practical implications the suspension leaves for the sector and regulators

For licensed companies and operators from the former regulated market, the measure creates financial exposure from compensation claims and from the elimination of operating revenues. For the State, the BRL 73 000 millones estimate in fiscal losses is the central figure illustrating the potential budgetary cost.

From a regulatory perspective, Provisional Measure No. 1394 reopens the debate about the balance between executive decisions and the role of Congress in upholding or annulling provisional norms. The proximity of the elections adds a temporal dimension to any reversal action.

Reading for operators and sports sponsors

Regulated operators should assess exposure to claims for reimbursement of fees and the market loss to unregulated operators. For sporting entities that received sponsorship, the absence of BRL 1 100 millones in contributions this year implies the need to seek alternative revenue sources or renegotiate budgets.

Commercial implications also affect payments, collections and contractual relationships that made activity viable within the regulated framework. See details on tax and sponsorship obligations for teams and leagues interested in the immediate economic impact.

Summary of key figures

• Estimated fiscal loss: BRL 73 000 millones (~€13.14 mil millones) over four years.

• Claims for paid licences: up to BRL 2 550 millones.

• Contributions to football (Brazilian Serie A) in 2026: BRL 1 100 millones (~€195.25 millones).

• Jobs affected: 10 000 empleos directos and 5 500 empleos indirectos.

• Wages linked to direct employment: BRL 460 millones per year.

For more context on sector regulation, consult related analysis in our [regulation](/regulation) section. For implications for professional sport, review content in [sports](/sports). We also cover media and business impact on our [news](/news) page.