JP Morgan lifts Aristocrat’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3.7%
Bank cites bigger installed base and faster Interactive growth after full-year results
Key Takeaways
- JP Morgan raised Aristocrat’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3.7% to nearly AUD2.86 billion for the year to 30 September 2027.
- The brokerage increased its 2027 NPATA forecast by 2.6% to AUD1.73 billion after Aristocrat’s full-year results.
- Aristocrat added about 6,500 units to its North American installed base in the 12 months to 30 September 2026, with an average daily fee of US$53.93 per unit.
- Aristocrat’s share of the U.S. online slot market rose to about 8.0% between June and September 2026, JP Morgan estimated.
- Group cash conversion fell to 85.0% of EBITDA from 94.0% a year earlier, partly offset by a AUD45 million legal-cost recovery related to Light & Wonder Inc.
JP Morgan raised its forecast for Aristocrat Leisure Ltd’s adjusted EBITDA for the financial year ending 30 September 2027 by 3.7%, to nearly AUD2.86 billion (US$1.94 billion). The upgrade, published in a memo on Thursday, follows Aristocrat’s full-year results and reflects a larger installed base of gaming machines and faster revenue growth at Aristocrat Interactive.
Drivers behind the upgrade
JP Morgan’s analysts Don Carducci, George Stewart and Louis Loader said Aristocrat Gaming will benefit from a full year of earnings from machines installed during the prior financial year. The supplier added about 6,500 units to its North American gaming operations installed base in the 12 months to 30 September 2026. Both the net additions and the average daily fee of US$53.93 per unit exceeded the brokerage’s expectations.
The revised 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate implies an 8.8% increase from the reported AUD2.64 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 September 2026. JP Morgan also raised its forecast for 2027 net profit after tax and before amortisation (NPATA) by 2.6%, to AUD1.73 billion.
Segment-level expectations
The bank pointed to three main segments at Aristocrat Leisure: gaming (casino slot machine equipment), Product Madness (social gaming products) and Aristocrat Interactive (gaming systems, iLottery, iGaming and sports, white-label iGaming, and content aggregation). At Aristocrat Interactive, JP Morgan expects growth from wider distribution of online casino content, expansion of iLottery contracts and greater use of the division’s platforms. The institution estimated Aristocrat’s share of the U.S. online slot market more than doubled between June and September, reaching about 8.0%.
Analysts cited new cabinets and titles, including additions to the “Monopoly” range, as supporting further installations. They also flagged the planned online launch of the “Dragon Link” title in early 2027 as a development that could help the Interactive division move towards its US$1 billion revenue target for the financial year ending 30 September 2029.
Profitability, cash conversion and leadership
JP Morgan noted margin improvements at Product Madness, where margins rose above 50.0% as direct-to-consumer sales reached 30.0% of social casino revenue. The brokerage warned group cash conversion weakened in the year to 30 September 2026: gross operating cash flow as a share of EBITDA fell to 85.0% from 94.0% a year earlier, with higher inventories and receivables tying up working capital. A AUD45 million recovery in legal costs related to Light & Wonder Inc partly offset that impact.
Aristocrat said on Thursday it had named Dafne Guisard as chief executive-elect, subject to required regulatory approvals. She is due to succeed Trevor Croker, who intends to retire in April 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did JP Morgan raise Aristocrat’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by?
JP Morgan raised the 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3.7%, to nearly AUD2.86 billion for the financial year ending 30 September 2027. The revision follows Aristocrat’s full-year results and analyst work on installed-base and Interactive growth.
What drove the upgraded forecast for Aristocrat?
JP Morgan cited a larger installed base and faster revenue growth at Aristocrat Interactive. Aristocrat added about 6,500 units in North America in the 12 months to 30 September 2026 and achieved an average daily fee of US$53.93 per unit.
What did JP Morgan say about Aristocrat Interactive’s prospects?
JP Morgan expects wider distribution of online casino content, expanded iLottery contracts and greater platform use to drive Interactive growth. The bank estimated Aristocrat’s U.S. online slot market share reached about 8.0% between June and September 2026 and noted the planned online launch of “Dragon Link” in early 2027.
Has Aristocrat announced any leadership changes?
Aristocrat named Dafne Guisard as chief executive-elect, subject to required regulatory approvals. She is due to succeed Trevor Croker, who intends to retire in April 2027.
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Oliver Grant
Industry Technology Correspondent
Oliver Grant covers the technology and business machinery of iGaming — platform and data deals, AI and compliance tooling, affiliate and marketing shifts, and the quarterly numbers behind them. The reports lead with the announcement, name the vendors and figures exactly as published, and separate genuine capability from press-release promise. When a supplier ships a new engine or a regulator tightens ad rules, Oliver Grant explains what actually changes for the companies involved.
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