Maybank Cuts Genting Singapore Earnings Estimates by Up to 18% After RWS Renovations

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd reduced its earnings estimates for Genting Singapore Ltd by up to 18%, citing hotel renovation works at Resorts World Sentosa that the bank says will disrupt operations over the next three financial years. The bank issued the revisions in a Friday memo after Genting Singapore published third-quarter results on Thursday, cutting its financial-year 2026, 2027 and 2028 forecasts by 18%, 14% and 14% respectively.

Maybank's revised forecasts and assumptions

Analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang wrote that Maybank now expects VIP volume of SGD24.0 billion across each of the three years, down from a prior forecast of SGD28 billion per year. The institution lowered its mass-market gross gaming revenue to SGD1.5 billion for each year, from an earlier projection of SGD1.6 billion annually.

“Reflecting lower VIP volume… and mass-market GGR, we cut our financial-year 2026, 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 18 percent, 14 percent and 14 percent,” wrote Samuel Yin Shao Yang.

He noted the third-quarter and nine-months 2026 results “underwhelmed as operations weakened due to hotel renovations.” Genting Singapore itself said the disruptions are expected to persist until early financial year 2028, a timeline Maybank used in adjusting forecasts.

How renovations have cut room supply

Maybank flagged that renovations at Resorts World Sentosa’s 464-room Hotel Michael have removed 232 rooms from inventory, leaving the resort with about 1,000 rooms in operation. The bank said that within the fourth quarter some of the reconfigured Hotel Michael rooms will be ready, while the other 232 rooms at Hotel Michael and the 121-room Crockford Towers will be renovated, eventually reducing available rooms to about 900.

Mr Yin wrote: “Genting Singapore expects Hotel Michael and Crockford Towers to fully reopen in first-half 2027 and early 2028 respectively. This implies to us that VIP volume and premium mass market will be supressed over the next three financial years.”

Quarter results and win-rate impact

Genting Singapore reported third-quarter profit after tax of SGD54.7 million, a decline of 42.2% from the prior-year period. Maybank said third-quarter and nine-month core net profit were around 53% of its full-year estimate.

The bank attributed part of the shortfall to a third-quarter VIP win rate of 2.7%, below the theoretical VIP win rate of 3.5%. Third-quarter VIP volume of about SGD6.0 billion came in 15% below Maybank’s expectations, and third-quarter mass market GGR of about SGD366 million was 9% below expectations. Maybank calculated that, had the VIP win rate matched the theoretical rate, third-quarter EBITDA would have been SGD36 million higher at SGD198 million.

RWS expansion and competitive context

Genting Singapore is also advancing a SGD6.8 billion Resorts World Sentosa expansion (RWS 2.0) that includes two new luxury hotels with 700 rooms, additional attractions at Universal Studios Singapore, and expanded shopping, dining and waterfront facilities, with completion of the new elements scheduled progressively through to 2030. Maybank placed the renovation impact on near-term earnings while the expansion proceeds.

In a September note, S&P Global Ratings said Resorts World Sentosa faced competitive challenges versus its duopoly rival Marina Bay Sands, run by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp, citing the latter’s more central location and proximity to other international hotels.