Macau and Emirates projects boost Wynn Resorts and Melco, says Texas Capital

Wynn Resorts Ltd and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd have several catalysts that could support their growth, including new hotel investments in Macau and expanded offerings in international markets, according to a Texas Capital Securities report published on 13 October 2026. Analyst David Bain said that despite recent weakness in Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR), Wynn Resorts — the parent of Wynn Macau Ltd — still regards the market as "very solid" with "strong investment potential".

Projects in Macau and the Emirates: catalysts for Wynn and Melco

Texas Capital identified specific projects that could improve the performance of Wynn and Melco. For Wynn Resorts, the broker highlighted the planned Enclave hotel tower at Wynn Palace and a theatre project within the complex as examples of investment that could support future performance in Macau. The assessment follows a meeting between Wynn Resorts representatives and the broker in early October 2026.

The report states that third-quarter gaming revenues in Macau were "slightly below" some investors' expectations, after a stronger initial period following the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup in mid‑July. Texas Capital attributes the uneven GGR trend in Macau to a combination of factors: weaker macroeconomic conditions in China, difficult year‑on‑year comparisons and recent clarification on the tax treatment of offshore accounts, which could affect liquidity among premium‑mass and VIP customers. The firm also recorded industry checks indicating possible delays in visa approvals to travel to Macau from certain regions.

The phrases "very solid" and "strong investment potential," used by Wynn Resorts representatives in the meeting with Texas Capital, according to the report, reinforce the thesis that the operator remains committed to investments in Macau despite recent volatility.

The role of Wynn Al Marjan Island in Wynn Resorts' valuation

Outside Macau, Texas Capital focused on Wynn Al Marjan Island, the group's resort and casino project in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. Based on conversations with Wynn Resorts representatives in early October, the broker said the resort remains on track to open in September 2027. Texas Capital estimates that the project's potential contribution is not yet adequately reflected in Wynn Resorts' share valuation.

The development of Wynn Al Marjan Island has a budget of US$5.7 billion and is being developed in partnership with local partners Marjan LLC and RAK Hospitality Holding LLC. Wynn Resorts holds a 40% equity stake in the project. In his commentary, David Bain emphasized the depth of potential feeder markets for the Emirati resort and added that expectations on investment returns have not changed materially despite recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Operational and financial catalysts for Melco Resorts

For Melco Resorts, Texas Capital identified the fuller opening of the REM hotel at City of Dreams Macau as a potential catalyst. The broker expects the opening planned for late October 2026 will provide greater visibility for revenue growth at the property and reduce venue‑level operating costs compared with its initial opening phases.

David Bain suggested that the third quarter could mark a low point for Melco Resorts' earnings performance, with specific disruptions at City of Dreams Macau that should give way to growth opportunities after the reopening. Texas Capital also cited Melco's relatively low stock valuation and its share buyback programme as supporting factors.

Melco repurchased approximately US$121 million of shares during the second quarter, and about US$590 million remained available under the current buyback authorisation. The broker anticipated further purchases if price levels are maintained.

Texas Capital financial projections and forecasts

Texas Capital estimated property‑level and group EBITDA generation for Melco Resorts. Their projections indicate that City of Dreams Mediterranean and other operations in the Republic of Cyprus could generate approximately US$76.8 million of property EBITDA in 2027, versus an estimated US$70.3 million in 2026. For City of Dreams Manila in the Philippines, the forecast property EBITDA is US$116.4 million in 2027, compared with an estimated US$126.3 million for 2026.

At the group level, Texas Capital projects Melco Resorts' adjusted EBITDA will increase to approximately US$1.22 billion in 2027 from US$1.17 billion estimated for 2026. The broker also calculated Melco's free cash flow yield at around 24%, and that the company trades at roughly 6.5x its estimated EV/EBITDA for 2027, a level approaching a historical low.

Implications for investors and operators

The combination of physical developments in Macau — such as Enclave and the REM reopening at City of Dreams — alongside the arrival of international projects like Wynn Al Marjan Island, form the core of Texas Capital's upside thesis for both groups. The broker highlights short‑term risks: Macau GGR volatility and the impact of offshore account tax treatment on the liquidity of high‑value customers.

For operators and suppliers, construction and opening timelines, JV equity stakes and visibility on property EBITDA are key variables to monitor. Market valuation of Wynn and Melco and corporate share buybacks will be determinants in the next phase of project execution.

Gonzalo Marín, Operations Correspondent.