Smarkets Announces Plan to Launch Prediction Market in the U.S. as CFTC-Regulated DCM

Smarkets has announced its intention to enter the U.S. prediction market as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to statements from its CEO, Trost. The UK-based bookmaker and exchange platform projects to bring its exchange-based model to the U.S. market and has begun updating its brand identity while retaining its core exchange architecture.

Smarkets plans its entry into the U.S. under CFTC supervision

Smarkets' decision is a bid to operate within the U.S. federal regulatory framework: the company will submit—or has submitted—a request to register as a DCM with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The stated goal is to replicate its prediction market model already in use in the UK, where it operates as an exchange platform among users rather than a traditional sportsbook.

The brand refresh accompanying the expansion plan does not imply a change in architecture. Smarkets maintains its betting exchange approach, where users set prices and take positions against other users on event contracts, rather than the bookmaking structure used by some domestic competitors.

The regulatory context: DCMs, event contract rules, and state decisions

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing at least two rules related to event contracts, a process that conditions the framework within which new DCM platforms will be able to operate. In parallel, state courts in Ohio and Tennessee have removed the federal preemption that Kalshi had invoked in those states, leaving the application of state law as a factor that could fragment the market.

This landscape creates two potential scenarios for Smarkets: an opening towards a unified federal market or a launch in a fragmented environment with state geofences. The regulatory context will determine when and how the company can market its product to the U.S. public.

Novig already recognized as DCM by the CFTC

Separately, Novig has received recognition as a Designated Contract Market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing it to operate as a regulated exchange for event contracts in the U.S. The existence of multiple DCMs indicates that the CFTC is permitting the entry of platforms whose operational designs vary between exchange models and sportsbook-inspired designs.

The concurrent existence of Novig and the potential arrival of Smarkets adds options to the catalog of operators regulated by the CFTC, expanding the technical and product alternatives available to investors and users interested in event contracts in the U.S.

Why it matters that Smarkets uses an exchange model

Smarkets' exchange model differs from platforms that transform the traditional betting experience into event contract products. This technical-operational distinction is relevant because it affects how price books are constructed, how liquidity flows between participants, and what specific regulatory obligations may apply to the platform.

Exchange-based markets tend to rely on matchmaking among users and more open pricing mechanisms. In theory, this design could facilitate adaptation to the CFTC's market framework, although interaction with state gambling laws remains a critical point.

Timing choices and strategies for operating in the U.S.

Smarkets' timing will determine if the company enters a market with more homogeneous federal rules or a patchwork of state requirements. Cross-border operators that have studied the case see two decisive capabilities: navigating federal registration with the CFTC and designing controls that comply with state gambling regulations where applicable.

The brand refresh suggests that Smarkets anticipates the need to differentiate from the name and reputation it holds in the UK, building recognition specific to the U.S. audience.

What operators, suppliers, and regulators should watch

• The evolution of the two CFTC rules on event contracts: any final text will directly impact operating conditions and compliance obligations.

• The court rulings in Ohio and Tennessee that limited the federal preemption invoked by Kalshi, as they open the door for other states to follow similar routes and condition the operational geography.

• The entry of multiple DCMs, such as Novig and potentially Smarkets, which will establish comparisons of products, governance, and control practices.

B2B providers and market technology companies serving liquidity and price formation will closely observe whether Smarkets' exchange model requires different technical adaptations than those understood by sportsbook-origin platforms.

What it means for the global prediction market

If Smarkets manages to operate with both federal registration and state compliance, its case could serve as a template for other international operators considering bringing exchange models to the U.S. Conversely, if the company faces limitations due to state geofences, the result would be a consolidation of a market structure by jurisdiction where operators design tailored solutions for each state.

In any scenario, the combination of federal regulatory decisions, DCM recognitions already awarded, and state court rulings marks a period in which the legal and commercial architecture of the prediction market in the U.S. is being defined.

"The goal is to adapt our exchange model to the U.S. market under the supervision of the CFTC," said Trost, CEO of Smarkets, according to the company's statement.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has already recognized Novig as a DCM, allowing it to operate as a regulated exchange for event contracts.

Smarkets remains in the CFTC's inbox and under the watchful eye of operators and suppliers analyzing how its model competes with national alternatives and what it means for the governance of the prediction market in the United States.