Altenar analysis: bettors favour ‘Over’ markets — World Cup data shows 87% on Over

Altenar's analysis of betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup final and semi-finals found that 87% of all bets in Total Goals markets were placed on the Over outcome, with “Over 2.5” the second most popular single selection at 18.77%. The company published these figures on 9 November 2026 and reported supporting detail from semi-final matches and other competitions alongside an industry view from Anestis Grazdanis, Football Monitoring Manager at Altenar.

How bettors split on total-goals markets

Altenar's dataset for the World Cup final shows that the most popular Total Goals pick was Over 1.5 (two or more goals). The second-most selected option was Over 2.5 at 18.77%, while Over 0.5 accounted for 13.81% of total-goals bets. Including the semi-final matches, Over options represented 87% of all wagers placed on Total Goals markets during those fixtures.

The company broke down match-level interest in Over 2.5 for headline matches: in England vs Argentina, 31% of Total Goals bets were on Over 2.5; in France vs Spain that figure rose to 47.3%. Altenar also notes that the average stake on Total Under selections was roughly twice the size of the average stake on Total Over selections, suggesting different bettor profiles for each side.

Expert perspective: emotion meets entertainment

Anestis Grazdanis, Football Monitoring Manager at Altenar, estimates that around 65–80% of bettors generally prefer the Over market. Grazdanis told Altenar that Over 2.5 is popular for two main reasons: psychological appeal and entertainment value. He explained that many customers back Over 2.5 because they want an engaging, fun spectacle and they keep hoping for decisive action until the end of the match.

"People choose the Over 2.5 market because it appeals to them from both a psychological and entertainment perspective," said Anestis Grazdanis.

Grazdanis contrasted this with Under betting, which he associated with more professional money. He said a strong pattern of Under bets can indicate bettors who approach the market differently from those betting primarily for entertainment.

Do match outcomes support the preference?

Altenar compared bettor preference with actual match outcomes across competitions. The opening matchday of the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League produced three or more goals in 13 of 18 matches, meaning the Over 2.5 line was met in 72.2% of those games. That result illustrates why many bettors find Over 2.5 attractive in day-to-day fixtures.

When the company examined major tournament finals, the picture was more conservative. Across the 10 most recent FIFA World Cup finals from 1990 to 2026, only 3 of the 10 matches (30%) finished with three or more goals: 1998, 2018, and 2022. In the five most recent UEFA European Championship finals from 2008 to 2024, 2 of 5 finals (40%) reached 3+ goals. Altenar's data therefore shows that high-profile finals are not reliably high-scoring despite bettor appetite for Over outcomes.

Historical and academic context

Altenar cites the review How Rational Is Gambling?, published in the Journal of Economic Surveys, which references a 2016 study reporting that around 81% of bets on football matches were placed on the Over outcome. The review's figure raises the question of whether that historical pattern persists; Altenar's 2026 World Cup data suggests Over dominance remains strong in recent high-profile fixtures, at least within the Total Goals product set.

Altenar also highlighted behavioural patterns in stakes: the larger average stake on Total Under—about double that of Total Over—supports Grazdanis's view that Under bettors may be more calculated or professional in their approach.

Product and information effects

Altenar describes features in its sportsbook designed to add context to instinctive betting. The provider's Team Performance functionality allows customers to review recent team results and scoring records before placing bets. The firm frames this as an additional source of context rather than a replacement for intuition, and poses the operational question of whether product design can shift customers from emotionally driven wagers to more informed decisions.

Altenar's findings combine trader-observed behaviour, match-level results and academic literature to illustrate why Over markets — notably Over 2.5 — retain strong appeal for many bettors, while also documenting that higher-stakes, potentially more professional money can concentrate on Under selections. The data set covers World Cup semi-finals and the final for 2026, Champions League opening fixtures for 2026/27, and historical final outcomes for World Cups and EUROs cited above.

What operators should note

The data shows two converging facts: Over outcomes attract a high share of bet volume in Total Goals markets, and Under bets tend to carry larger individual stakes. Those patterns can coexist. Operators monitoring liability, pricing and trading flows should account for both the volume bias toward Over and the stake size bias toward Under when modelling exposure and setting limits.

"From a trading perspective, a strong pattern of 'Under' betting can be an indication of more professional money," Grazdanis said.

Altenar's report was published on 9 November 2026 and the company continues to use in-product features such as Team Performance to surface team-level data to bettors.