Kalshi Traders Push Jensen Huang Exit Odds to 80% for Dec. 1, 2026

Kalshi traders pushed the probability of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang leaving his role to 80% for a departure before Dec. 1, 2026. The Kalshi market showed 86% for a departure before Jan. 1, 2027 and 90% before July 1, 2027 after a New York Times report alleging an undisclosed second relationship with an Nvidia executive.

What the markets moved on

Kalshi's event contracts reflected the sharp repricing within hours of the New York Times report published on Wednesday. The Times alleged a second relationship involving Jensen Huang and Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's vice president of health care. The report cited five former employees speaking on condition of anonymity and said a bystander allegedly recorded Huang and Powell together at a hotel in San Jose, California, during Nvidia's annual developer conference in March 2026. The Times did not obtain a copy of the video.

Board reaction and public statements

Wall Street Journal reporter Olivia Beavers wrote on X that Nvidia's board was reportedly preparing to meet "as soon as today to determine his future, people familiar with the matter said." On Nov. 8, 2026, Huang acknowledged a previous extramarital relationship amid separate allegations about a possible Chinese intelligence connection; Nvidia's board opened an investigation the same day. Huang sent a memo to employees admitting to the first affair and apologising:

"My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust," Huang wrote. "I have fallen short of that responsibility." — Jensen Huang

CNBC reported that leaders on Capitol Hill called for Huang's resignation or removal. Senator Kevin Cramer, who serves on the Senate Banking Committee, "doubled down Wednesday on his call for Huang to resign," saying, "As a matter of his own conscience, he should resign." Representatives Brian Mast, John Moolenaar and Rick Crawford — who chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the House Select Committee on China and the House Intelligence Committee, respectively — urged Huang to appear before Congress for a closed-door briefing and said they had not received a response as of Wednesday afternoon. Mast and Moolenaar said they have not ruled out subpoena power. Moolenaar said, "All three committees have subpoena power, and I know all three committees have a very serious interest in getting to the bottom of this and have transparency around this. We are going to continue to pursue this."

Market probabilities cited

The Kalshi contract probabilities reported in this article are:

• 80% chance of Huang leaving Nvidia before Dec. 1, 2026

• 86% chance of Huang leaving Nvidia before Jan. 1, 2027

• 90% chance of Huang leaving Nvidia before July 1, 2027

These figures are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute trading advice.

Regulatory and disclaimer notes

Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The platform's reporting included standard risk and eligibility disclaimers: the article noted that the information is not financial advice, is provided on an "AS IS" basis, and that Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For related coverage see the news section and Kalshi's regulatory page referenced by outlets covering the story.

The opinions and perspectives belong to the author and the piece does not offer a recommendation to trade any specific product or contract.