Citizens: Suppliers Explore igaming-style Products That Don’t Use RNG

Suppliers are testing igaming-style products that settle on real‑world outcomes rather than random number generators (RNG), Citizens wrote in a market note published on 2 October 2026. The note, issued after the G2E conference in Las Vegas, summarised conversations Citizens had with vendors and described the topic as the “most interesting conversation topic” at the event.

Why suppliers are looking at igaming-style products without RNG

Citizens, the capital markets and advisory firm, said multiple suppliers it spoke with at G2E and in recent weeks are evaluating products that replicate the igaming player experience but derive outcomes from external event data. The mechanics under consideration include crypto perpetuals, advance deposit wagering (ADW), historical horseracing and historical sporting events. The firm framed these concepts as a potential route to "add incremental product" without relying on traditional RNG-driven slot or table engines.

Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming equity research at Citizens, told the firm that discussion at G2E centred on ways to make online offerings feel more like igaming while anchoring results to observable, pre-existing data. The note says some of these approaches would technically sit under sports betting frameworks but could be presented in ways that mimic igaming customer journeys.

How real‑world outcome mechanics are being proposed

The proposals Citizens summarised fall into several technical categories:

• Crypto perpetuals: using price movements or perpetual contract outcomes as the determinant for game results.

• Advance deposit wagering (ADW): settlement based on advance stakes against real events.

• Historical horseracing: replaying archived races as predetermined outcomes inside a machine or online product.

• Historical sporting events: using past sports results — for example, previously completed matches — as the outcome feed.

Citizens noted that historical horseracing is not new to gaming hardware, having been integrated into terminals for over a decade. The appeal to suppliers is that these mechanics offer an igaming‑like interface while tying the outcome to an external, observable event instead of a server‑side RNG.

Commercial examples and revenue claims

The market note referenced two live examples that operators have already rolled out. Hard Rock Bet launched "past motor races" slot games in October 2025, which use historical motor racing results as the predetermined outcomes behind spins. Citizens reported an industry source saying Hard Rock Bet had generated around $1bn in gaming revenue using those historical motor racing outcomes.

DraftKings also introduced a product that uses archived sports results: DK Replay, released in March 2026, is based on historical Major League Baseball games. Citizens presented these launches as early proofs of concept for a broader set of vendors and operators considering similar mechanics.

"While these products may technically fall under sports betting, we believe they highlight a potentially significant opportunity if executed correctly," the Citizens note stated. — Jordan Bender, Citizens

Legal and operational questions vendors are weighing

Citizens flagged industry debate about whether prediction market platforms or suppliers could layer wagering on top of crypto perpetuals to create a legally permissible alternative to conventional igaming. One industry source quoted in the note suggested that approach might be "a step too far for prediction markets at this stage," but Citizens said it expects these concepts to be tested across sectors including daily fantasy sports (DFS), online sports betting (OSB) and sweepstakes operators over the medium term.

The legal status of such hybrids depends on jurisdictional definitions of gaming and sports betting, plus how regulators interpret the use of external outcomes and whether those mechanics circumvent existing licensing requirements. Operators considering these products will need to reconcile product design with local regulation and payment rails. Platform vendors and compliance teams will have to document the source data, chain of custody and settlement rules to withstand regulatory scrutiny.

Implications for operators, vendors and regulators

Operators looking for incremental product without new RNG certification may find these mechanics attractive, but the Citizens note implies several caveats. First, not every market will accept an outcome‑based workaround; classification as sports betting could bring different tax, consumer‑protection and licensing obligations. Second, suppliers must be able to integrate event data feeds and preserve an auditable trail of deterministic outcomes.

For platform and technology vendors the immediate opportunity is productisation: tools that ingest historical event data or crypto price feeds, map them into a game logic layer, and produce an operator‑grade wallet and settlement flow. Compliance and legal advisory work will be in demand as operators test market entries.

The discussion also intersects with broader debates about consumer risk and harm thresholds, and how regulators should treat synthetic or hybrid products that sit between traditional igaming and sports wagering. Operators and vendors should follow regulatory commentary closely; readers may find coverage in our regulation and b2b sections useful.

What to watch next

Citizens expects testing of these concepts across DFS, OSB and sweepstakes over the medium term. The immediate signals to monitor are further product launches from major operators, regulatory reactions in key markets and any public filings or investor commentary that quantify revenue from these mechanics. Hard Rock Bet's reported $1bn in revenue from past motor races and DraftKings' DK Replay are the earliest data points; more concrete performance metrics will determine whether suppliers scale these offerings or treat them as niche experiments.