Future of VIP in Macau: IMF predicts low participation despite recovery
The IMF indicates a structural shift toward the mass market and regulates the VIP segment since 2022.
Key Takeaways
- The IMF indicates that the VIP segment will continue to have a relatively low share of GGR in Macau following the 2022 reforms.
- Mass gaming accounted for around 73% of Macau's GGR in 2025, according to the IMF's report.
- The GGR increased by 9.1% in 2025 and reached approximately 85% of the 2019 level; it grew another 6.9% in the first half of 2026, driven by the mass market.
- The gaming industry represented between 40% and 45% of GDP, with visitors from mainland China accounting for about 70% of the total.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concludes that the VIP gaming segment in Macau will continue to represent a relatively low proportion of total gaming revenue in the medium term, despite signs of recovery in 2025 and the first half of 2026. In its consultation report published on Tuesday, September 30, 2026, the IMF noted that sector growth has shifted to being driven by mass market gaming and that regulatory reforms since 2022 have reduced the contributions of operators linked to the VIP segment.
Structural adjustment of the market and share of mass gaming
The IMF report states that the mass segment accounted for nearly 73% of the gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau in 2025. The IMF writes: "While the VIP segment showed some signs of recovery, its share of GGR is expected to remain relatively low as casinos adapt to the post-pandemic operating environment and the tightened rules for junket operators introduced since the 2022 gaming-law reforms." This observation frames the diagnosis: the recovery of VIP is limited compared to the sustained advance of the mass market.
The total GGR of the sector increased by 9.1% year-on-year in 2025, and the Fund estimates it at approximately 85% of the 2019 level. In the first half of 2026, GGR rose another 6.9%, "driven by the mass-market segment," according to the text.
How the 2022 reforms have changed the VIP
The IMF attributes part of the adjustment to the regulatory measures introduced after the gaming law reforms of 2022. The report lists specific elements of the tightening: higher licensing requirements for intermediaries, limits on credit provision, and enhanced anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) safeguards. These measures have made it more difficult for the VIP to regain its previous relative weight in the revenue mix.
The points cited by the Fund include:
stricter licensing requirements for VIP-linked operators (junket operators);
limits on credit extension by casinos or intermediaries;
greater AML/CFT oversight and compliance.
Macroeconomic impact and dependence on gaming
Despite the recovery in gaming and tourism, Macau maintains a real gross domestic product (GDP) level around 10% below pre-pandemic levels, points out the IMF. The institution highlights the persistence of "structural changes" in the gaming industry, including weaker demand from high-level customers.
The report estimates that the gaming industry continues to represent between 40% and 45% of the city's GDP, underscoring the economy's exposure to external shocks and cyclical volatility. Additionally, visitors from mainland China accounted for approximately 70% of the total tourist arrivals, a concentration that the IMF identifies as a vulnerability source for fiscal revenues and economic activity.
Growth outlook and external risks
The IMF projects that Macau's real GDP will moderate to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, down from 4.7% in 2025. It expects growth to be around 3% annually in the medium term, dragged down by a slower slowdown in mainland China and ongoing dependence on tourism and gaming.
Among the downside risks identified by the report are:
increased competition in the gaming industry;
an economic slowdown in mainland China;
renewed trade tensions and volatility in global financial markets;
a prolonged deterioration in the local real estate market;
tourist demand from mainland China below expectations.
Economic diversification: investment goals and gaps
The IMF emphasizes that achieving the diversification goals set out in the Third Five-Year Plan of the Special Administrative Region — to raise non-gaming activities to 60% of GDP by 2030 — will require more investment. It identifies clear priorities: investment in skills and talent acquisition, physical and digital infrastructure, and improvements in the business environment.
The agency estimates that the non-gaming economy operates below its potential, with a negative output gap of 1.6% in 2026, which it expects to gradually reduce and close by 2030.
What drives private investment and casino operators' commitments
The IMF anticipates that growth will be supported by gaming revenues and a recovery in private investment, partly related to casino operators' commitments to invest in non-gaming activities. The report warns that, despite these commitments, the outlook remains subject to significant risks that could hamper economic activity if the negative scenarios highlighted materialize.
Implications for operators and regulators
For operators, the central reading is that the mass market will continue to be the main growth engine and that VIP-oriented operations face a more restrictive regulatory environment since 2022. Regulators remain focused on governance and AML/CFT, reducing fast growth avenues for the VIP segment.
For policymakers, the tension is clear: Macau continues to heavily depend on gaming, but the official ambition to increase the share of GDP that is not gaming-dependent demands a broader and sustained package of investment and reforms.
"Visitors from mainland China represented approximately 70 percent of total tourist arrivals," emphasizes the IMF, highlighting the market concentration risk, states the report of September 30, 2026.
Gonzalo Marín, Corresponsal de operaciones del sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the IMF consider that VIP will maintain a low share in Macau?
The IMF argues that the 2022 gaming law reforms tightened requirements for VIP-linked operators, including stricter licensing, credit limits, and enhanced AML/CFT measures; furthermore, recent growth has been driven by the mass market, which accounted for roughly 73% of GGR in 2025.
How did Macau's GGR evolve in 2025 and the first half of 2026?
Macau's GGR rose by 9.1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching about 85% of the 2019 level; in the first half of 2026, it increased by 6.9%, driven by the mass segment.
What external risks does the IMF highlight for Macau's economy?
The IMF identifies increased competition in gaming, a slowdown in mainland China, renewed trade tensions, volatility in global financial markets, and risks of a prolonged downturn in the local real estate market, coupled with weaker than expected tourist demand from mainland China.
What diversification goals are outlined in the report and what is lacking to achieve them?
The report recalls the Third Five-Year Plan's goal to raise non-gaming activities to 60% of GDP by 2030; the IMF calls for investments in skills, talent, physical and digital infrastructure, and improvements in the business environment.
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About the author
Gonzalo Marín
Industry Deals Correspondent
Gonzalo Marín covers the corporate deal flow of gambling — operator strategy, M&A, regulated-market entries, and product launches. The reports open with the transaction, cite companies, valuations, and jurisdictions exactly as released, and keep the announcement apart from its actual effect. When a Latin American operator raises capital or a European brand lands in the region, Gonzalo Marín reports who signs, for how much, and on what terms.
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