IMF: Macau VIP Gaming Share to Stay Low as Mass Segment Dominates

The International Monetary Fund published a staff consultation report for Macau on 30 September 2026 that says the VIP segment will represent a relatively small share of overall gaming revenue over the medium term. The IMF reported that mass-market gaming accounted for about 73 percent of Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, and that casino GGR rose 6.9 percent in the first half of 2026, led by the mass market.

IMF finds VIP share to remain low in Macau VIP gaming share outlook

The IMF said Macau’s gaming industry has undergone a "structural shift" since the Covid-19 pandemic, with recovery and growth increasingly driven by mass-market gambling rather than high-end VIP play. The report noted some signs of VIP recovery but concluded that "its share of GGR is expected to remain relatively low as casinos adapt to the post-pandemic operating environment and the tightened rules for junket operators introduced since the 2022 gaming-law reforms." The IMF identified the 2022 reforms as tightening licensing, restricting credit provision and strengthening anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism safeguards.

Mass-market dominance: figures and recent performance

Macau’s casino GGR increased by 9.1 percent year-on-year in 2025, reaching approximately 85 percent of the 2019 level, the IMF said. The institution added that GGR rose by 6.9 percent in the first half of 2026 and explicitly attributed that growth to the mass segment.

The report quantified the mass segment’s weight in 2025 at around 73 percent of GGR, leaving VIP and other channels with the remaining share. The IMF emphasised that tighter regulation of VIP activity since 2022 — including constraints on junket operators and stricter governance and AML/CFT requirements — is a central reason the VIP share is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic prominence.

Regulations, junket changes and the role of AML/CFT

The IMF described regulatory changes introduced after 2022 as measures to strengthen governance and AML/CFT safeguards. Those changes include stricter licensing requirements for entities involved in VIP play, limits on the provision of credit, and enhanced enforcement of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism protocols. The report said these policy shifts have altered operators' commercial models and reduced the scope for high-end credit-based gambling that supported VIP volumes before the pandemic.

Regulatory developments are discussed in the context of Macau’s licensing and supervisory framework and the broader shift in casino business models. Readers interested in regulatory coverage will find the IMF’s emphasis on governance and AML/CFT enforcement relevant to conversations in the local and regional compliance community. For regulatory implications see the analysis in the regulation section.

Economic impact: GDP, tourism concentration and downside risks

Despite the recovery in gaming and tourism, Macau’s real gross domestic product remained about 10 percent below its pre-pandemic level, the IMF reported. The institution estimated that the casino sector still accounted for between 40 percent and 45 percent of Macau’s GDP, making the city highly exposed to swings in gaming revenue.

Visitors from mainland China made up approximately 70 percent of total tourist arrivals, according to the report. That concentration exposes Macau to external shocks and cyclical volatility originating in the mainland, the IMF warned. The report named greater competition in the gaming industry, a potential slowdown in mainland China, renewed trade tensions and global financial market volatility as downside risks to the economic outlook.

The IMF forecast real GDP to moderate to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, down from 4.7 percent in 2025, and expected growth to remain around 3 percent annually over the medium term because slower expansion in mainland China would weigh on tourism and gaming.

Diversification goals and policy prescriptions

The IMF tied its policy recommendations to Macau’s Third Five-Year Plan, which sets a target of increasing non-gaming activities to 60 percent of GDP by 2030. The staff report said achieving that aim would require further investment in skills development, talent attraction, physical and digital infrastructure, and improvements to the business environment.

The IMF estimated Macau’s non-gaming economy was operating below potential, with a negative output gap of 1.6 percent in 2026, and expected that gap to narrow and close by 2030. The institution said growth would be supported by gaming revenue and a recovery in private investment, partly linked to casino concessionaires’ commitments to invest in non-gaming activities. The IMF nevertheless warned that a prolonged downturn in the local property market or weaker-than-expected demand from mainland China could materially affect economic activity.

What this means for operators, investors and policymakers

Operators and concessionaires should plan for a market where mass-market customers provide the bulk of near-term revenue and VIP volumes are structurally constrained by regulation. That implies continued investment in mass-market offerings, customer acquisition for non-credit products and in-market amenities that serve broader tourist flows. The IMF’s assessment also underscores the fiscal and economic fragility that arises from heavy dependence on casinos, a point policymakers will need to address through targeted diversification and investment programmes.

Industry readers tracking revenue composition and regulatory change may find the IMF’s numbers — 73 percent mass share in 2025, 9.1 percent GGR growth in 2025, and 6.9 percent growth in H1 2026 — useful benchmarks when evaluating operator strategies and concessionaire investment plans. For coverage of market performance and company responses see related reporting in our news and casino sections.

"While the VIP segment showed some signs of recovery, its share of GGR is expected to remain relatively low," the IMF wrote in its consultation report dated 30 September 2026. — International Monetary Fund

The IMF report provides a data-driven foundation for assessing Macau’s medium-term path: mass-market-led revenue, constrained VIP contribution, significant exposure to mainland China tourist flows, and a policy agenda centred on diversification and stronger governance.