Kenya's GRA considers a licence for prediction markets
Proposal listed in the 2026/27 licensing cycle; timing and criteria not yet published
Key Takeaways
- The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) of Kenya announced it is considering a licence for prediction markets in the 2026/27 licensing cycle.
- Director General Peter Karimi described the plan in an interview on 18 October 2026; the GRA has not published a start date, application requirements or permitted event types.
- A report on 18 October 2026 identified 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit as operating without a Kenyan licence while users participated.
- Liberia already requires a specific licence or approved National Lottery Authority partnership, with a $80,000 fee and $500,000 minimum paid-up capital, and prohibits certain contract types.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) of Kenya announced it is considering creating a license for prediction markets within its 2026/27 licensing cycle. Director General Peter Karimi set out the plan in an interview with Business Daily published on 18 October 2026; the authority has not published a start date, application requirements or the types of events that would be allowed.
Plan and legal context
The GRA is considering the category under the Gambling Control Act 2025, which lists licences for online bookmaker, online lottery and online casino and allows new categories to be added by regulation. Karimi said several companies have approached the regulator to explore the possible new category. The existence of that regulatory route means the GRA could create the licence by regulation without requiring a wholly new law. [Gambling Control Act 2025](/regulation)
"The interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required," Peter Karimi said in the 18 October 2026 interview.
Current rules already cover control systems, [payments](/payments), age verification, advertising and the regulator's access to transaction data; the GRA could adapt those requirements to prediction markets if the category is formalised.
Unlicensed platforms and open questions
A report published on 18 October 2026 identified three platforms — 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit — as operating without a licence while users in Kenya participated in their markets. The regulator has not yet published application requirements or a list of permitted event types (for example, sport, elections or economic indicators).
The GRA also faces questions about cross-border access and cryptocurrencies. Karimi said some platforms operate only in the United States, while others use crypto for onboarding and withdrawals. He also expressed concern about the spread of marketing.
"We have to prepare for the fact that marketing knows no bounds," Karimi said.
Comparison with Liberia
Liberia has already introduced a dedicated framework for prediction markets. In Liberia operators must obtain a specific licence or an approved partnership with the National Lottery Authority; the licence carries a fee of $80,000 and requires a minimum paid-up capital of $500,000. Liberia prohibits contracts on the death of a named person, criminal activity and Liberian elections.
Pending litigation in Kenya
The GRA's proposal coincides with judicial challenges to the national regulatory framework. On 21 October 2026 the High Court referred three constitutional petitions challenging the Gambling Control Act 2025 and the 2026 regulations to the Principal Judge to determine which court should hear them; the referral was procedural and did not decide the merits. In a separate challenge over licence fees and capital requirements, the High Court allowed the GRA to process licence applications and to collect fees for grant purposes, although enforcement is stayed while the appeal proceeds. [High Court developments](/news)
Consequences for players in Kenya
The GRA has not yet created the category or published requirements; therefore the named platforms remained unlicensed as of 18 October 2026. Existing rules on payments, age checks and advertising could be adapted to the new licence, but the authority has not set a timetable. The original article was last updated on 29 October 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly has Kenya's GRA announced about prediction markets?
The GRA announced it is considering creating a specific licence for prediction markets within the 2026/27 licensing cycle. Peter Karimi presented the plan in an interview published on 18 October 2026, and the authority has not set a start date or application requirements.
Which platforms were reported to be operating without a licence in Kenya?
The 18 October 2026 report named 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit as platforms operating without a Kenyan licence while users in Kenya participated in their markets.
Is there a comparable regulatory framework elsewhere in Africa?
Yes. Liberia implemented a framework requiring operators to hold a specific licence or an approved partnership with the National Lottery Authority, with a licence fee of $80,000 and minimum paid-up capital of $500,000, and it bans contracts on the death of a named person, criminal activity and Liberian elections.
How does the plan fit with Kenya's existing law?
The Gambling Control Act 2025 lists licences for online bookmaker, online lottery and online casino and allows the regulator to add categories by regulation; the GRA could therefore create a prediction-markets licence by regulation rather than by new primary legislation.
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About the author
Miguel Sandoval
Regulatory Affairs Correspondent
Miguel Sandoval tracks gambling legislation, licensing, and regulator enforcement — from Spain's DGOJ and the Latin American authorities to the UKGC, the MGA, and the state-by-state map in North America. The reports answer three questions precisely — what changed, where, and who it affects — with jurisdictions, dates, and penalties cited exactly as published. Operators and compliance officers read Miguel Sandoval to know which rulebook moved before their next meeting.
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