Lula's victory puts Brazil's betting ban in the hands of the STF

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a non-consecutive fourth term as president of Brazil with 51.79% of valid votes in the second round on 26 October 2026, and his re-election leaves the betting ban he signed in October unresolved. The 85 federal authorisations covering 188 brands expired on 25 October 2026, and the measure's future now depends on a ruling by the Supreme Federal Court.

Electoral result and the role of betting

Lula received 51.79% against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the final count by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The margin exceeded four million votes. In the first round, held on 4 October 2026, Bolsonaro had 47.03% and Lula 45.16%.

The president signed the betting ban nine days before the first round and framed the vote as a plebiscite on the measure. Three days before the second round he streamed on YouTube with federal deputy André Janones and declared:

“Gambling will not return. If you want to make money, go to work.”

Betting was central to the campaign, and the signing of the measure turned the dispute into a regulatory issue decided by voters.

The Supreme Court and the constitutional challenges

The immediate legal path for the industry runs through the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Minister Luiz Fux is the rapporteur for three direct actions of unconstitutionality against the measure: ADI 8024 filed by Anseja, ADI 8027 from the Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL) and ADI 8028 from the municipal association ANPV. The broadcasters' body Abert also sought suspension, and 16 football clubs, including Cruzeiro and Fluminense, asked for the measure to be frozen while Congress reviews it. For procedural details see [regulation](/regulation).

On 2 October 2026 Fux gave the Advocacia-Geral da União (AGU) a 72-hour deadline to respond; the AGU asked that the challenges be dismissed and that the ban remain in force. According to UOL reports, Fux held the file before the second round because he considered ruling in advance could be interpreted as taking sides. No date has been announced for his ruling to date.

Analysts noted three possible outcomes: deny the injunction, suspend the ban entirely, or reinstate only sports betting while keeping online casinos prohibited. Any individual decision by the rapporteur would require confirmation by the STF plenary.

Expiry of authorisations and court disputes

The 85 federal authorisations, granted to 82 companies and covering 188 brands, expired on 25 October 2026. Fees paid for those authorisations will not be refunded. A retroactive ruling could validate the authorisations for the period in which they were in force.

Nineteen legal actions (19 actions) were filed in federal courts by operators and by the ANJL. The only favourable decision, a partial injunction granted to Stake in São Paulo, was suspended by the president of the Federal Regional Court of the 3rd Region (TRF3) at the government's request.

The ANJL reported that more than 3,500 jobs have been lost since the measure was issued and that the figure could approach 6,000 by year-end.

Economic impact and operators' responses

A study by LCA Consultores for the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gambling (IBJR) estimates a loss of tax revenue of R$58 billion to R$73 billion between 2027 and 2030.

International groups also report damage: Flutter Brazil generated $74 million of revenue in H1 2026. Allwyn has said Betano is preparing legal action to protect its five-year licence, and Evolution temporarily closed its Brazil studio.

Legislative timetable and Congress

In Brasilia, the joint committee appointed on 30 September 2026 has not yet convened and lacks a chair and rapporteur, according to the congressional file. 99 amendments were filed before the deadline of 13 October 2026. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre had extended that deadline because of the elections.

According to Congress's own roadmap, the measure will enter an urgent regime on 9 November 2026, which sets the agenda for the chamber handling it. The first 60-day period ends on 23 November 2026, followed by an automatic 60-day extension. That timetable could shift the decision to the new legislature.

Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats in the Chamber, the largest single-party caucus since 1990. Poder360's tally points to 276 deputies identified as right-wing for 2027, versus 124 on the left and 113 in the centre. The PL is also on track to secure 28 of the 81 Senate seats.

Lula downplayed the idea of a hostile Congress in his victory speech: “I did not choose Congress. The people chose it, and with that Congress I will vote, work and get things approved.”

“It is likely he will be a president with limited powers from the start,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas.

Operational scenario: sports betting only?

If the STF restores only sports betting, much of the market would remain inactive. Online casinos represent about 70% of bookmakers' revenues, and the offshore market accounted for more than 40% of volumes before the ban. Operators paid R$30 million for each five-year authorisation, with a regulated market that opened in January 2025.

The next milestone is Luiz Fux's ruling; if the ban is upheld in court, the decision will be legislative and political within a Congress with a large PL presence.