Catena Media Q3 2026: revenues fall 29% and €30m–€35m impairment announced

Catena Media plc published preliminary results on 16 October 2026 showing a 29% drop in third‑quarter revenues and announcing a non‑cash impairment of between €30 million and €35 million in intangible assets. The Malta‑incorporated company listed on Nasdaq Stockholm (Small Cap) reported preliminary Q3 revenues of €8.3 million, down from €11.6 million in the same quarter a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA of €0.7 million, which includes a reversal of bonus provisions of €0.7 million.

Key results and figures

The numbers, published at 17:40 CEST on 16 October, are preliminary and unaudited. Nine‑month revenue was €30.1 million, compared with €31.0 million in the prior year period. Nine‑month adjusted EBITDA was €4.6 million, versus €5.2 million in 2025. Without the bonus‑provision reversal, third‑quarter adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately zero by our calculations.

The company stated that as at 30 June the group held €90.1 million in other intangible assets — primarily domains and websites — and that the announced charge represents between one‑third and two‑fifths of that amount. Equity, excluding hybrid instruments, was €75.5 million at the half‑year close.

Causes: search change and the CPA model

Catena Media attributes the traffic loss to the expansion of generative search and declines in its search rankings. The statement says generative search "continued to transform how users discover brands online" and that search engines continue "elevating lower‑relevancy content". The company also cited seasonal cuts in operators' marketing budgets.

The revenue structure amplifies the impact: the company explains that more than 90% of its new customers are acquired under cost‑per‑acquisition (CPA) deals, and that in Q2 CPA deals represented 88% of revenues while revenue share was 6%. This dependence on CPA means traffic declines feed through immediately to quarterly revenues.

"It is a weak quarter," said CEO Manuel Stan, adding that "the search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental change, and as a predominantly CPA‑based business our results reflect the effects of those changes immediately and in full."

Comparison with peers and precedent

Catena Media's note contrasted with the revenue models of some competitors. Better Collective reported €53 million recurring revenue within a quarter of €89 million, while Raketech showed revenue share of 44.4% and upfront payments of 22.3% in its second quarter. Both groups faced different issues: Better Collective cut guidance after a betting ban in Brazil; Raketech attributed its decline to the removal of a publisher network and to less relevant markets.

Catena Media recorded an impairment in Q3 2025 of €16.5 million, focused on North American sports assets and Asia‑Pacific casinos. In its 2025 annual report, the carrying values of cash‑generating units were aligned with recoverable amounts: €69.9 million for the casino unit and €13.1 million for sports, with no headroom. That year assumed a compound annual growth rate of 13% for the casino unit between 2026 and 2030.

Strategy: TraffiqX and diversification

Management reiterated its plan to reduce search dependence with the TraffiqX platform, planned for launch in Q1 2027, and by expanding into verticals such as prediction markets. The company has described TraffiqX as an automated marketplace that will connect publishers and advertisers, but has not yet disclosed its revenue model or costs. The MRKTPLAYS sub‑affiliate already contributes more than a third of group revenues according to the half‑year report, although the company warned some MRKTPLAYS partners suffered the same ranking issues as its sites.

Catena Media set 10 November 2026 as the date to publish its full report, when it must detail which assets will be covered by the impairment and provide figures on depositing customers, segments, cash and net result.

What remains to be seen

The size of the impairment suggests management no longer expects the lost traffic to recover on its own. By our calculations, the Q4 plan would require more than €21 million in revenues to meet previously stated targets, against €15.6 million that the company invoiced in its strongest quarter of the 2025 financial year (Q4 2025). On 11 August Manuel Stan said the board had begun transforming the company into "a provider of technical infrastructure", but audited data to assess whether TraffiqX can offset organic traffic loss will not be available until 10 November.