Kalshi Traders Slash Hegseth Impeachment Odds 82 Points to 4% for 2026

Kalshi traders cut the probability that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be impeached before the end of 2026 to 4% after House Republicans blocked a fresh impeachment effort. That 4% reading on Kalshi's market represents an 82-percentage-point fall from 86% on 9 November 2026, the day before the House vote.

Market movements and near-term odds

Kalshi's impeachment market now shows a 4% probability of Hegseth being impeached in 2026. Traders nonetheless put a substantially higher chance on impeachment in 2027: the market prices a 66% probability of impeachment before April 2027 and 74% before July 2027.

Kalshi markets are also pricing the prospect that Hegseth will leave office by other means. The platform's Hegseth departure market assigns a 56% chance he will leave office before April 2027, 61% before July 2027, and 65% before October 2027.

What happened in the House

Representative Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Monday, but House Republicans moved to block the effort the following day. Reuters reported the chamber voted 211-204 to refer Massie's impeachment resolution to the House Judiciary Committee rather than proceed to a direct vote on the charges. Because Republicans control the committee, the referral effectively stalled the attempt.

Massie cast the lone Republican vote against referring the resolution. It was Massie's second push; he had sought to force an impeachment vote in September 2026 but Speaker Mike Johnson sent the House home early for the midterm campaign recess, delaying action until after the election, NPR reported.

Al Jazeera reported that 11 Democrats missed the procedural vote. Had they all been present and voted with their party, Democrats would have had sufficient numbers to defeat the motion and force a full House vote on impeachment.

Lawmakers' statements and reactions

Rep. Jonathan Jackson described being delayed while en route to the chamber and said:

"While en route to the floor to oppose that motion, a traffic incident and a police-escorted bus caused a delay that resulted in the vote closing before I, along with other Members, could reach the chamber."

The New York Times noted that Massie plans to continue pressing Republican colleagues during his remaining weeks in Congress. Massie told reporters, "I'll give them every chance I can for them to vote for sanity before I leave," and added, "And if they pass on the sanity vote, then … I mean, they're all going to be up for election in 2028."

Time explained the mechanics that underlie the market shift: impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, whereas conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority. Kalshi traders appear to have moved probability mass into 2027 under the expectation Democrats could control both chambers once the new Congress is seated.

Markets, jurisdictions and disclaimers

Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated exchange offering event contracts; the reporting here reflects how traders reallocated odds after the House vote. This article preserves Kalshi's published probabilities: 4% for 2026 impeachment; 66% by April 2027; 74% by July 2027; 56%, 61%, and 65% chances that Hegseth will leave office by April, July and October 2027, respectively.

Kalshi's coverage includes standard platform disclaimers that information is for convenience, is not financial advice, and that Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. The exchange is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

For ongoing coverage of political markets and contract pricing see the news section and the b2b market analysis pages.