Polymarket Investigates Dozens of New Wallets After Well-Timed Israel-election Bets

Polymarket's investigative team opened inquiries into dozens of newly created wallets that placed bets on Israel's Oct. 27 election, an investigation the company discussed with Bloomberg in a report published on Oct. 29. Reuters published a summary of Bloomberg's findings later that day. The platform's three principal markets on the vote — which party wins the most seats, Likud's seat count and the next prime minister — together logged about $106.4 million in trading volume, according to Unchained's review of Polymarket's market data on Friday.

What activity triggered the probe

Analysts flagged hundreds of fresh accounts that entered positions shortly before voting ended on Tuesday, predominantly backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in office and backing Likud to win the most seats. Bloomberg reported some of those accounts collectively cashed out more than $100,000, while many other wallets reportedly still sit on paper gains. As of Friday, Polymarket's market on which party would win the most seats priced Likud at about 99%, though that market had not yet resolved.

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps told Reuters it counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day and before polls closed. Polysights, which monitors Polymarket flows, posted on X after polls closed that its tools had detected “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” as Netanyahu's odds rose and called the pattern “definitely worth investigating.” Bloomberg said both firms consider the activity suspicious and are digging into it, while cautioning the findings are not conclusive.

"We can ban wallets, take legal action, or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted," Polymarket said on its market integrity page about enforcement options.

Rules, past cases and broader context

Polymarket's market integrity page states its terms prohibit trading on stolen confidential information, on illegal tips, or on events a trader can influence. The company also says it has "referred 90+ accounts to law enforcement" and works with authorities on open investigations. The review follows a string of insider-trading cases across prediction markets: in April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army master sergeant with using classified intelligence about the Maduro raid to win more than $409,000 on Polymarket. Bloomberg noted that separating potential insider trading from original research or fortunate timing is difficult, and no trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing in the Israel-related activity.

Earlier this month, Kalshi began reviewing three small bets that backed the White House press secretary pick before it was reported, and last month the House Oversight Committee widened its insider-trading probe to include more platforms.

Polymarket's investigators, industry trackers and law enforcement sources continue to probe the wallets identified around the Oct. 27 vote as the platform's markets remain under scrutiny.