Robinhood Shares Surge 17% on NFL Season Outlook and Prediction Markets Growth

Robinhood Markets Inc. saw its share price climb nearly 17% to $124.72 on Thursday, hitting its highest level since December 2025. This surge was propelled by a series of bullish analyst notes ahead of the new NFL season, pointing to prediction markets and fresh product launches as major revenue drivers for the Nasdaq-listed brokerage.

Analyst Upgrades Highlight Prediction Market Potential

Institutional optimism has centred on Robinhood’s expansion into prediction markets. Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Robinhood from $124 to $150, specifically flagging the company’s launch of Rothera, a proprietary prediction market platform established earlier this year. In a research note, Morgan Stanley argued that “broader product capabilities are improving the economics of Robinhood’s installed customer base supporting more assets per customer, more activity per customer and greater economics captured per activity.”

The positive momentum was echoed by Piper Sandler, which not only upgraded its price target to $145 but also highlighted Robinhood’s advantageous position ahead of the NFL season. According to Piper Sandler, roughly 23% of prediction market volume has moved from Kalshi to Rothera since June, demonstrating Robinhood’s strong uptake among retail traders.

Shift in Prediction Market Volumes from Kalshi to Rothera

Last NFL season, Robinhood users accounted for 22%–30% of trades on Kalshi’s exchange, but this participation has recently dropped as volumes migrate to Rothera. Piper Sandler views strong World Cup activity—where tournament trading on Kalshi surpassed $27bn and more than $1.2bn was bet on the tournament's winner—as a leading indicator for what could unfold during the coming American football season. During the World Cup, Kalshi onboarded over three million new users and engaged in in-stadia advertising alongside Gibraltar-licensed ADI Predictstreet. Rothera’s trading volume also spiked during the tournament, supporting projections that the NFL and college football seasons will drive significant Q3 and Q4 revenues for Robinhood’s prediction markets.

Financial Event Contracts and Future Market Development

The firm’s July metrics reflected ongoing growth: Robinhood reported 6.1 billion event contracts traded in July, marking a 5% month-on-month dip but a more than 20-fold increase year-on-year. Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell pointed to the enormous potential in company Key Performance Indicator (KPI) event contracts, foreseeing the category surpassing one trillion contracts by 2028. While these financial event contracts are not yet live on Robinhood, the firm already offers markets linked to commodities pricing, inflation rates, Nasdaq closes, and precious metals.

“For the US, we believe company KPI contract volume could surpass one trillion in 2028 from virtually nothing today, exceeding sports volumes, even in any positive SCOTUS ruling in favour of national regulation,” wrote Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

The Regulatory and Competitive Landscape

Robinhood’s recent gains come as legal and regulatory uncertainty looms. The state of New Jersey has petitioned the Supreme Court to intervene in the regulatory battle over sports event contracts. This follows conflicting circuit court decisions: Nevada prevailed over Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit, while the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey. No Supreme Court review is guaranteed, but its outcome could reshape the US prediction markets sector.

Competitors remain formidable. Kalshi is currently valued at $22bn, while Polymarket’s latest funding round targets a $21bn valuation. Both companies reportedly count Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser. The article also notes that all Ninth Circuit judges in the Nevada-Kalshi case, as well as three of the Supreme Court justices, were appointed by former President Trump.

Robinhood’s Broader Sports and Financial Market Offering

Robinhood currently operates a range of markets linked to macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices, diversifying beyond traditional retail brokerage. Its predictions business gained traction after acquiring a 90% stake in Miami International Holdings derivatives exchanges (MIAX) through a January joint venture with Susquehanna. Historically, Robinhood had driven activity on Kalshi’s exchange before moving its prediction market operations largely in-house to Rothera.

Robinhood chair and CEO Vlad Tenev is set to address the Goldman Sachs conference next week, likely updating investors on continued product expansion and sports trading strategies. Industry professionals can track such developments through news and b2b resources for further updates.