In-House Odds Calculation Revives Among Sportsbook Operators

The practice of in-house odds calculation is regaining relevance among sportsbook operators, according to Jonathan Smith, founder of Sportsbook Training Services. With over 25 years of experience compiling odds at UK fixed odds and spread betting firms, Smith notes that the arrival of the internet pushed outsourcing and the 24/7 model, but today there is a trend towards reclaiming control and technical knowledge within betting houses.

The Paradigm Shift After the Arrival of the Internet

Before the digital boom, operators calculated their odds internally, relying on the criteria and experience of their own compilers. The shift to uninterrupted global services necessitated the incorporation of external data and odds providers like Sportradar and Genius Sports, which are now fundamental in the ecosystem of sports betting.

Smith summarizes the change: > "Once the internet arrived, the demand for a global 24/7 service meant that operators would need help on a large scale. That help came in the form of third parties like Sportradar, Genius Sports, and many others." (Jonathan Smith)

Although the data infrastructure has expanded, Smith believes that operators are not as dependent as is often thought: they often publish odds that they did not develop themselves but rather their B2B providers did. The real added value lies in being able to correctly estimate probability, merging data, experience, and interpretive ability.

Relative Dependence on Data in Odds Generation

Smith emphasizes that, while the abundance of data facilitates estimations, a price (the odds) remains a calculation based on 'the best informed guess.' Operators who originate odds — particularly B2B providers — leverage data to refine internal models, but human interpretation and probability theory remain at the core of the process.

This relative independence from massive data flows encourages the return to in-house odds calculation. Today, more and more betting houses seek to develop their own competencies and models to offer differentiated products and reinforce operational control.

Recent Transformations: Rise of In-Play and Props

The rise of player props and live betting markets has reconfigured demand. New generations lean towards markets that offer instant response and resolution, concentrating innovation in dynamic, high-margin, and more interactive products.

According to Smith, "we have been developing these ideas for nearly 20 years, to the point that sports betting revolves around these user-friendly products." The result is that the offering and odds calculation must continuously adapt to maintain competitiveness and respond to changing playing styles internationally.

Local Methods: Adapting Models for Each Market

Smith’s experience indicates that migrating models between markets rarely works without profound adjustments. Innovations that spark immediate interest in the UK may garner little traction in countries like Croatia or Nigeria, where retail dynamics and player preferences differ significantly.

A common mistake among operators is to assume that a license in a new country allows for replicating the UK model without adaptation. Success depends on understanding the regulatory and cultural nuances of each jurisdiction, a challenge that translates into odds and market design.

Professional Training: The Role of Sportsbook Training Services

Smith created Sportsbook Training Services as an educational platform to train traders and operators in pricing and probability theory. After decades in the industry, he aims for both new and experienced professionals to take control of odds production, learning from mistakes without fully delegating the process to third parties.

The trend towards outsourcing has created situations where operators only manage others' errors: "Today they prefer to pay third parties to make mistakes for them — what matters is learning from those failures and transferring that knowledge to the internal team."

Sportsbook Trading Masterclass at SBC Summit 2026

At SBC Summit 2026, Smith will conduct a Sportsbook Trading Masterclass in three sessions. He will explain practical and theoretical applications concerning odds construction, showing how knowledge, common sense, and some data are sufficient to design sustainable and efficient markets.

The sessions will revolve around probability, uncertainty management, and assembling own models: "I will try to demonstrate that truly understanding sports betting can only be achieved by trying it oneself." Attendees will be able to discuss the future of pricing and the advantages of managing odds internally. SBC Summit takes place in Lisbon from September 29 to October 1, 2026, with 40,000 professionals and an exhibition that brings together leading global brands in the industry.

Towards a Return of Internal Control in Betting Houses

The process of odds calculation remains subject to the same theoretical principles, but the scale, technology, and competition have changed. Smith anticipates that operators will seek to reclaim key areas within the value chain — starting with pricing — to strengthen their product and differentiation in a more fragmented and competitive landscape. More details on relevant events and conferences in the betting industry.