Seaport Forecasts Macau 2026 GGR Growth Below 1%; November Seen Falling 6.1%
Brokerage projects 0.9% full-year growth after October GGR fell 10.0% to MOP21.68bn.
Key Takeaways
- Seaport Research Partners forecasts Macau GGR will rise 0.9 percent in 2026.
- October GGR fell 10.0 percent year‑on‑year to MOP21.68 billion.
- Seaport expects November GGR down 6.1 percent year‑on‑year and Q4 GGR down 5.2 percent.
- VIP GGR was down over 35 percent year‑on‑year in October while mass play fell low single digits.
Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow 0.9 percent year‑on‑year in 2026, and forecasts November GGR will decline 6.1 percent year‑on‑year. The brokerage published the outlook after the Macau government reported October GGR fell 10.0 percent year‑on‑year to MOP21.68 billion.
Seaport's headline forecasts and timing
Seaport's 0.9 percent expansion estimate for full‑year 2026 leaves the industry well ahead of the Macau government's nominal GGR projection of MOP236 billion (US$29.21 billion). The brokerage noted Macau recorded MOP247.40 billion in GGR in 2025. In its commentary, senior analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote:
"We forecast November to remain soft with GGR down 6.1 percent year-on-year, while fourth-quarter GGR is expected to be down 5.2 percent year-on-year."
He also reiterated Seaport's calendar‑year projections: 2026 growth of 0.9 percent and 2027 to increase 3 percent.
Drivers behind October weakness
Seaport attributed October's moderation to several specific factors. The note singled out weaker China macroeconomic conditions, a falling stock market and China government tax enforcement on offshore trusts affecting high net worth individuals with overseas assets, which the brokerage said has contributed to some high rollers delaying visits. Umansky wrote that softer demand has been concentrated in higher‑end play even though visitor volume to Macau remained "robust".
The brokerage's internal estimates pointed to a low VIP hold in October. VIP GGR was down "over 35 percent year‑on‑year" while mass play was down in the "low single digits of percent" year‑on‑year.
Market shares and valuations
Seaport estimated that Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd was the largest GGR market share gainer in the third quarter, while Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd was the largest share loser. The brokerage added that gaming stock valuations with Macau exposure "remain largely undemanding," and that short‑term catalysts are lacking.
In a separate note, Texas Capital Securities warned of margin pressure across the sector and said:
"With nominal GGR contracting alongside elevated player reinvestment rates and promotional pricing, industry margins could face continued pressure." Analyst David Bain observed that Macau industry EBITDA margins "have compressed into the mid‑20 percent range versus pre‑pandemic baselines in the low‑to‑mid 30 percent."
Frequently Asked Questions
What full‑year GGR growth does Seaport expect for Macau in 2026?
Seaport Research Partners expects full‑year GGR growth of 0.9 percent for Macau in 2026. The brokerage published the forecast after the Macau government reported October GGR of MOP21.68 billion.
How did Macau's October 2026 GGR perform year‑on‑year?
October GGR fell 10.0 percent year‑on‑year to MOP21.68 billion, according to the Macau government figure cited by Seaport Research Partners and discussed by senior analyst Vitaly Umansky.
What does Seaport say caused the recent weakness in high‑end play?
Seaport points to weaker China macroeconomic conditions, a falling stock market and China government tax enforcement on offshore trusts impacting high net worth individuals with overseas assets, which it says has led some high rollers to delay visits.
What are Seaport's short‑term expectations for November and Q4 GGR?
Seaport forecasts November GGR to be down 6.1 percent year‑on‑year and fourth‑quarter GGR to be down 5.2 percent year‑on‑year, as stated by senior analyst Vitaly Umansky in the firm's commentary.
How have Macau industry margins changed according to Texas Capital Securities?
Texas Capital Securities reports Macau industry EBITDA margins have compressed into the mid‑20 percent range versus pre‑pandemic baselines in the low‑to‑mid 30 percent, a point made by analyst David Bain in a separate note.
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Oliver Grant
Industry Technology Correspondent
Oliver Grant covers the technology and business machinery of iGaming — platform and data deals, AI and compliance tooling, affiliate and marketing shifts, and the quarterly numbers behind them. The reports lead with the announcement, name the vendors and figures exactly as published, and separate genuine capability from press-release promise. When a supplier ships a new engine or a regulator tightens ad rules, Oliver Grant explains what actually changes for the companies involved.
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