Philippines on track to meet 6.4m international arrivals target for 2026

The Philippines is on course to meet its target of at least 6.4 million international visitor arrivals in 2026 despite elevated fuel prices and higher airfares, Tourism Secretary Dita Angara-Mathay said on 12 October 2026. The Department of Tourism signalled confidence that full-year arrivals could reach between 6.4 million and 6.8 million, a range Maybank IB Research cited in a Monday summary that referenced the department's outlook and strong travel demand expected in the fourth quarter.

Why the Department of Tourism still expects 6.4 million arrivals

Secretary Dita Angara-Mathay told local media she had been "really super anxious about the fuel prices" and the "accompanying higher airline fees" and had feared a drop in travel sentiment. She said she no longer expects arrivals to fall and believes the country can match its 2026 forecasts. The Department of Tourism has pointed to robust fourth-quarter demand as a key support for reaching the lower end of its target range.

"I was really super anxious about the fuel prices," Dita Angara-Mathay told local outlets, adding she had feared a decline in volume but does not now expect one.

The department's confidence rests on multiple operational measures and market signals, not a single metric. Officials are working to secure more charter flight capacity, extend visa facilities for key source markets and designate service providers aimed at specific tourist segments.

China market performance and routing measures to support arrivals

Recent Department of Tourism data show the China-originating tourist segment recorded the largest increase in visitor arrivals from January to August 2026, with 310,088 Chinese visitors entering the Philippines — up circa 70% year-on-year. That surge underpins the department's strategy to prioritise connectivity and facilitation for Chinese travellers.

Actions the department has signalled or begun to pursue include:

• expanding a 14-day visa-free entry arrangement currently available through Ninoy Aquino International Airport and Mactan-Cebu International Airport; proposals would extend the programme to secondary gateways including Clark, Caticlan, Palawan and Bohol

• increasing charter flights between the Philippines and multiple Chinese cities, with officials saying more than 10 additional charter flights have already been arranged

• considering the designation of tour operators and guides specifically for Chinese travellers to help address safety concerns and make service delivery more consistent

Secretary Angara-Mathay told delegates at a Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines event that visitor safety will be a priority as the country seeks to attract larger visitor volumes.

"What we'll do is get the tourists but make sure that there are safety nets," she said at the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines event.

Visa, safety and airport gateway changes under consideration

The Department of Tourism has publicly proposed widening the 14-day visa-free scheme for Chinese nationals to other airports beyond the current pair. At present the visa-free entry arrangement covers arrivals through Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Metro Manila and Mactan-Cebu International Airport in Cebu. The expansion proposals named Clark on Luzon, Caticlan, Palawan and Bohol as candidate gateways.

Clark is already identified in public commentary as a casino-resort hub, and other secondary gateways serve major attraction areas such as Boracay. Officials argue that enabling visa-free entry at those points could shorten transfer times and broaden the range of holiday products offered to inbound travellers.

Designating tour operators and guides for China-origin tourists is intended as a complementary safety and quality-control mechanism. The measure would see specific providers endorsed or authorised to service Chinese groups, with the objective of improving language support, local navigation and risk management.

Industry signals: new capacity and Boracay openings

Tourism momentum is visible in infrastructure and product openings. Kaban Hotel and Casino Boracay — described in reporting as the first Boracay casino-hotel to receive licensing from the country's gaming regulator — held a soft opening on 16 September 2026, a property representative confirmed to GGRAsia. That launch signals continued investment in tourism-linked resort products that target higher-spend segments and could support longer-stay itineraries.

Airport throughput and flight connectivity remain decisive. The department is pursuing additional charters into secondary airports and inland gateways to connect Chinese cities further from the coast. Officials reported arranging more than ten extra charter flights so far as part of that push.

What this means for operators and regional markets

Operators in hospitality, air services and inbound tour operations should expect policy shifts that favour increased charter capacity, targeted marketing to China-origin tourists, and possibly differentiated compliance or accreditation for guides serving that market. Casino-resort operators on Luzon and in island destinations should monitor visa-policy developments closely — changes that open secondary gateways to visa-free arrivals could materially alter catchment-area economics for venues that rely on Chinese visitors.

Maybank IB Research's summary, cited by local reporting, framed the department's expectations simply: demand in the fourth quarter should underpin reaching the 6.4–6.8 million arrivals range. That assessment leaves open downside risks tied to global aviation cost pressure, but it aligns with the Department of Tourism's own public guidance.

Near-term indicators to watch

Key metrics and milestones that will confirm or refute the department's outlook include:

1. monthly arrival tallies for October–December 2026, particularly China-origin figures

2. the implementation timeline for any visa-free expansion to Clark, Caticlan, Palawan and Bohol

3. confirmation of schedules and load factors for the additional charter flights to/from Chinese cities

4. operational rollout of designated tour operator or guide schemes for Chinese travellers

Those indicators will determine whether the Philippines achieves the 6.4 million floor the Department of Tourism is targeting, or whether the estimate should be revised.

Marcus Webb is Industry Deals Correspondent and contributed reporting on the policy measures and commercial openings referenced in this article.