Study: Brazil faces up to €13.14bn tax hit after provisional gambling ban

Brazil could lose BRL 73 billion in tax revenue over the next four years as a result of the provisional ban on the regulated online gambling market introduced by Provisional Measure No. 1394, a study published on 9 October 2026 concludes. The consulting firm LCA Consultores places the potential loss at about €13.14 billion (BRL 73 billion) and warns the measure would also affect employment, compensation claims and sports sponsorship.

The numbers: revenue, jobs and salaries

LCA Consultores calculates a total tax-revenue shortfall of BRL 73 billion across four years following the suspension of Brazil's regulated online gambling market by Provisional Measure No. 1394. The study converts that figure to approximately €13.14 billion.

The report estimates employment effects in two categories. Direct industry roles that depend on the regulated market number roughly 10,000 positions, while another 5,500 jobs are identified as indirectly dependent on the sector. Annual salaries associated with the direct jobs currently total about BRL 460 million a year, according to the study.

Compensation claims and commercial consequences

The study notes that companies holding paid licences could demand compensation for their lost licences, estimating claims of up to BRL 2.55 billion. It also highlights a commercial knock-on: gambling operators contributed more than BRL 1.1 billion this year to support the Brazilian Serie A football league, a sponsorship flow that would stop if regulated operations cease.

"The most engaged users who currently utilize services from companies in the regulated gambling market will be compelled to move to illegal websites after their closure, which will leave the users without any protection that they were using before."

LCA Consultores links this displacement to protection gaps: the most active customers are likely to continue gambling but do so on illegal sites where the consumer protections and oversight present in the regulated market no longer apply.

Legal mechanics: who can reverse the ban?

Provisional Measure No. 1394 is the legal instrument that suspended operations in the regulated online gambling market. The President of Brazil retains the authority to cancel the provisional measure. Separately, the National Congress can overturn the measure through its legislative procedures, reversing the suspension.

The study frames its fiscal projections against this conditional legal backdrop: the economic estimates assume the provisional measure remains in force for the period analysed, and they note the available executive and legislative remedies that could end the suspension.

Political timing and the 2026 election calendar

Brazil's presidential election timetable is running alongside the regulatory dispute. The study references the presidential contest scheduled for October 2026. After the first-round vote on 4 October 2026, the study reports President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is trailing the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, by a margin of 2 percentage points, and a second round is due on 25 October 2026. The authors position the provisional suspension within that electoral calendar, noting the political context in which the measure was adopted and may be rescinded.

Market impact and sector-specific risks

LCA Consultores identifies several sector-specific risks tied to the suspension:

• loss of tax revenue to federal and state coffers (BRL 73 billion over four years);

• direct and indirect employment losses (10,000 direct; 5,500 indirect);

• aggregate direct-sector salaries of BRL 460 million per year being at risk;

• potential licence-compensation claims up to BRL 2.55 billion;

• the removal of more than BRL 1.1 billion in sponsorship to the Brazilian Serie A football league.

The authors underline that the interruption of regulated activity may produce displacement to illicit operators, with attendant consumer-protection and enforcement challenges for regulators and law enforcement.

What operators, rights-holders and policymakers should note

Operators with paid licences that have been suspended are legally positioned to negotiate or seek compensation; the study quantifies potential claims at BRL 2.55 billion. Rights-holders in sport that rely on sponsorship from regulated gambling companies face a material shortfall — the study cites more than BRL 1.1 billion contributed to the Brazilian Serie A this year alone.

Policymakers have two immediate routes to reverse or mitigate the economic effects: the President can cancel the provisional measure, and the National Congress can vote to overturn it. The study does not prescribe which route should be taken; it confines its remit to quantifying the economic and employment impacts if the suspension endures.

Where this sits in the regulation beat

The suspension of the regulated online gambling market under Provisional Measure No. 1394 is an active regulatory event with fiscal, labour and commercial consequences across sport and media rights. Observers and affected businesses will watch both executive action from the President and legislative activity in Congress for the market's legal status.

For reporting on the regulatory fallout and how it intersects with sponsorship and sports financing, readers can follow developments in our regulation and sports coverage. The study by LCA Consultores anchors the immediate fiscal estimate at BRL 73 billion over four years and sets the parameters for further legal, commercial and enforcement analysis.