AGA Warns of Stagnation in NFL Betting and Points to Prediction Markets

The American Gaming Association (AGA) projects that Americans will legally bet $29.5 billion during the 2026 NFL season, indicating stagnation in the handled volume influenced by the expansion of prediction markets. According to the AGA's analysis, based on national performance to date and previous estimates regarding the NFL, the total only marginally surpasses the $29.4 billion calculated for 2025.

AGA Estimates for Legal NFL Betting 2026

The estimated figure includes bets on preseason, playoffs, the Super Bowl, and futures placed since March. The AGA notes that the slight increase is insufficient to consider it a growth, which marks a difference from previous years, where the legal volume increased by double digits. "Since 2018, following the federal ban's repeal, growth was notable, but this year is different," commented Bill Miller, CEO of the AGA.

Within the industry, operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have left their membership in the AGA amid their interest in event contracts, highlighting internal frictions surrounding new betting models.

Impact of Prediction Markets on the Sports Betting Sector

The AGA holds platforms like Kalshi responsible for stalling the growth of the regulated market, by offering products that allow betting on sports event outcomes under the guise of "prediction markets." According to the CEO of the AGA:

"Since the rise of prediction markets, the advance of the legal market has stagnated." — Bill Miller, AGA

DraftKings, which traditionally leads the betting volume, reported only a 1.5% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026, reaching $14.1 billion during the defining phase of the NFL (playoffs and Super Bowl). In comparison, the same period in 2025 showed a 15.7% increase from 2024.

The AGA interprets this slowdown as a consequence of both the maturity of the legal market and the expansion of prediction markets nationwide, where platforms offer betting on sports outside the traditionally regulated framework.

Prediction: Evolving Volume and Regulatory Competition

The 2026 NFL season, which officially starts on September 10, will be the first in which prediction markets operate fully for American consumers. Kalshi, one of the key players, already registers over $82 million in volume for the 2027 Super Bowl champion contract. Meanwhile, DeFi Rate, an independent analytics platform, estimates that the total volume driven this year in NFL markets—including prediction markets—could reach $57 billion.

It is important to clarify that "handle" (total amount wagered) and "volume" (traded amount in prediction markets) are not equivalent metrics, although the comparison highlights the public's appetite for these new options.

Legal Challenges and the AGA's Stance

The regulatory debate remains open. New Jersey has requested the Supreme Court to determine whether sports event contracts are legal in the US. The state appeals after a Ninth Circuit ruling that sided with Nevada against Kalshi, contrasting with a prior Third Circuit decision favoring the prediction market in its dispute with New Jersey.

Miller concluded the statement warning about the lack of regulation and protection in these new environments:

"Prediction market platforms confuse consumers by presenting betting as investment; Kalshi and others evade state, tribal laws and tax controls." — Bill Miller, AGA

The AGA warns that this dynamic leaves consumers—including youths and college students—unprotected, lacking the guarantees and transparency of the legal market. The future of the sector will depend on how the courts resolve the viability and reach of prediction markets, and how major operators respond to these new competitors.

Impact of Prediction Markets on the Legal Betting Model

For operators and platforms, the advance of prediction markets alters the competitive and regulatory landscape:

• Traditional operators see their market share threatened if these markets continue to attract users without contributing to regulatory controls or state taxes.
• Growth of decentralized platforms is prompting younger segments to bet outside the legal circuit.

The AGA demands fair rules and uniform oversight for all players offering sports betting, regardless of the technological or legal model they employ. It remains to be seen whether a regulatory convergence will be achieved that preserves consumer protection and the development of the US market.