ASIC warns prediction markets have “all the characteristics” of betting
Regulator says retail traders lack legal protection and offering contracts to consumers is not in the public interest
Key Takeaways
- The Australian Securities and Investments Commission warned on 02/11/2026 that event contracts in prediction markets share characteristics with betting.
- The regulator said retail traders do not have legal protection under Australian law.
- ASIC stated that offering those contracts to retail consumers is not in the public interest.
- The warning comes as platforms such as Coinbase, Polymarket and Kalshi attract attention for growth and fundraising milestones.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission issued a warning on 2 November 2026: event contracts in prediction markets exhibit “all the characteristics” of betting and retail traders do not have legal protection under Australian law. The regulator also said offering those contracts to retail consumers is not in the public interest.
ASIC’s position
The warning was published by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission on 02/11/2026 and stresses that operators trading event contracts to the retail public must consider the applicable regulatory framework. The Commission made clear that, at present, those participants do not have the legal safeguards that protect other financial consumers.
“All event contracts have the characteristics of betting,” the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said in its statement, and added that offering them to the retail public is not in the public interest.
Market context
The ASIC note arrives amid growth and attention on prediction markets: related coverage cites that prediction markets exceeded US$200m in annualised revenue at Coinbase, that the exchange Polymarket resumed trading after a hack, and that Kalshi reached a US$40bn valuation after a funding round, according to industry reports. The Australian regulator’s notice raises questions about how operators should structure retail access in jurisdictions with different financial frameworks. Written by Renata Quiroga, Corresponsal de mercados de apuestas.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did ASIC say about prediction markets?
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission said on 02/11/2026 that event contracts in prediction markets have “all the characteristics” of betting and that offering them to retail consumers is not in the public interest; it also warned retail traders lack legal protections under Australian law.
When was the ASIC warning published?
The warning was published on 02/11/2026 by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and includes the literal phrase “all the characteristics” to describe event contracts.
What market examples are cited alongside the warning?
Industry coverage cited that prediction markets generated US$200m in annualised revenue at Coinbase, that Polymarket resumed operations after a hack, and that Kalshi reached a US$40bn valuation after a funding round; these examples were mentioned in the context of growing attention to the sector.
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About the author
Renata Quiroga
Betting Markets Correspondent
Renata Quiroga covers sports betting and prediction markets — sportsbook launches, odds technology, event contracts, and the regulatory calls that decide what can be bet on and where. The reports open with the product or the ruling, name operators and platforms precisely, and explain the mechanics without needless jargon. When a book enters a Latin American market or a prediction exchange lists a contested contract, Renata Quiroga reports what changes for the bettor.
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