Better Collective Co-CEO Details Prediction Markets Growth and Regulatory Challenges in Q2

Better Collective reported a strong second quarter for 2026, led by gains across revenue, EBITDA and profit. Co-CEO Jesper Søgaard credits prediction markets growth in North America and an expanded talent-led media portfolio, while acknowledging tax-driven setbacks in the UK and ongoing frustration in Brazil. The company's diversified model helped offset these headwinds, and full-year guidance remains unchanged.

Q2 Financial Performance: Revenue, Profit and Margins

Both revenue and profitability improved in Q2 2026 for Better Collective. Brands such as Action Network and AceOdds contributed to this momentum, aided by the World Cup catalysing strong performance in June. Søgaard emphasized:

"It gave us good tailwind in the quarter, but at the same time we also saw the North American business doing well, especially on the earnings side, where we had a very strong margin expansion." — Jesper Søgaard

Operational adjustments over the previous 18-24 months contributed to this turnaround. Management expects H2 performance to be more heavily weighted, with preparations underway for the NFL season and further World Cup activity.

Regulatory Headwinds in the UK and Brazil

Remote Gaming Duty in the UK

Better Collective absorbed a €2 million impact due to the UK's remote gaming duty increase, which forms part of a projected €8 million annual tax headwind. The effect is largely felt by the company's paid media operations in the UK, particularly in auction-based marketing channels where increased taxes raised direct costs. Søgaard stated the paid media team has adjusted its strategy but warns this higher tax burden could encourage players toward unregulated markets. Despite disappointment about the industry environment, Better Collective is adapting to these changes by optimizing campaign costs and shifting strategies where possible.

Brazil: Significant Tax Revenue but Ongoing Uncertainty

The Brazilian market impact rose to €2 million from Q1 into Q2. With Brazilian elections imminent, Søgaard sees little chance the government will withdraw from collecting substantial iGaming tax revenue. Adjustments are expected, but the market remains relevant. Over time, these regulatory conditions are expected to become part of the business baseline, with less quarter-to-quarter volatility in the comparison figures.

World Cup: Supporting Growth in Multiple Markets

The opening stages of the World Cup were factored into the quarter, resulting in increased new depositing customer (NDC) numbers and heightened demand for Better Collective’s influencer-driven, talent-led media. One noteworthy initiative involved placing influencers together for the tournament to generate viral content. This approach delivered above-expectation engagement. The company will import learnings from the men’s event to optimise for the Women’s World Cup next year.

Momentum from these events influences planning for other seasonal sports, such as the NFL. A backloaded H2 is anticipated, but the board sees the company on track to meet its existing guidance.

Prediction Markets as a Revenue Driver for Better Collective

Prediction markets partnerships formed a core growth driver, particularly in North America. Starting 2026 with Kalshi and adding Polymarket, Better Collective handles these affiliates as CPA-driven businesses; revenue is booked based on players delivered to the partner platforms. Increased competition, with both large sportsbooks and prediction market operators entering for the NFL’s start, is viewed positively. Søgaard noted the model matches Better Collective’s data-driven approach, focusing on audience monitoring and conversion.

User Patterns: Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks

End user behaviour in prediction markets largely mirrors that of traditional sports bettors, with few differences in engagement or usage patterns discerned so far.

Diversification: Talent-Led Media and Product Expansion

Better Collective sees its expanded portfolio—including organic publishing, paid media, esports, and talent-led shows—as risk mitigation and a competitive advantage. The company's innovation pipeline now features platforms like Playbook in addition to established brands. The talent-led shows, such as influencer initiatives around headline sports, exemplify product and audience diversification.

This multi-channel presence strengthens Better Collective’s market position, providing a buffer against individual market or product headwinds.

Revenue Share in North America: Accelerated Growth

Revenue share agreements in North America are up 49% year-on-year, with growth expected to stabilize moving forward. While this rapid ramp-up emerged from a low base, consistent quarter-on-quarter momentum is considered the target rather than further large-scale increases. This trend confirms Better Collective’s belief in the scalability of its affiliate and partnership strategy for the US market.