Better Collective highlights strength in predictive markets and manages tax impacts in the UK and Brazil

Better Collective closed the second quarter of 2026 with increases in revenue, EBITDA, and net income, supported by strong performance in North America and outstanding results in predictive markets. The company, which operates brands like Action Network and AceOdds, highlighted the positive influence of the World Cup and partnerships with predictive market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. However, the impact of the new remote gaming tax in the UK and complex regulation in Brazil affected results, although the company maintains its annual guidance unchanged.

Financial Results and the Role of Predictive Markets

The quarterly report publication shows Better Collective recovering strength after a period of fluctuations. Co-CEO Jesper Søgaard emphasized that both the FIFA Men's World Cup and business expansion in North America, particularly in revenue margin, have driven this growth. "This quarter demonstrates that we are back on the right track, with revenues and profits growing and consolidating the changes of the last two years," Søgaard stated.

Predictive markets in North America have been particularly relevant, with collaboration agreements signed earlier in the year with Kalshi and more recently with Polymarket. These partnerships, based on a Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) model, have allowed Better Collective to diversify its business model, providing greater resilience against competition from major sports betting operators and the rise of new players in the predictive sector.

Impact of the Remote Gaming Tax in the UK

The increase in the remote gaming tax in the UK, which translated into an approximate burden of €2 million for the quarter, has mainly impacted the operation of paid media and auctions, segments where Better Collective has a strong presence. Søgaard noted that the company expected an annual tax impact of around €8 million from its original guidance, although the exact magnitude for the UK was unknown. "Our paid media team has managed to mitigate the effect. However, I regret that these measures may incentivize some players to the black market," concluded the co-CEO, making it clear that the company is adapting to new regulatory realities.

Regulatory Landscape and Prospects in Brazil

In Brazil, the regulatory environment continues to present uncertainty. Better Collective reported a negative impact of €2 million, greater than in the first quarter. Søgaard attributed part of the situation to the electoral cycle but expressed confidence that the significant revenue flow will keep the market open in the long term. "The industry's tax contribution to the Brazilian state is relevant, and while there will be adjustments, we trust that the market will remain active," he pointed out.

From a business perspective, the company anticipates that Brazil will cease to be a comparative pressure factor as the new regulatory framework normalizes and revenues stabilize in the coming quarters.

Performance of the World Cup and Talent-Led Media

The Men's World Cup represented a boost for acquiring new customers (NDCs) and positioning influencer-generated content. One of the most successful formats was a program in which various creators lived together in a house during the tournament, generating viral material and increasing the firm's visibility. "The lessons learned from the Men's World Cup will be key as we approach the women's edition," Søgaard anticipated.

The talent-focused media strategy and diversification have been crucial for Better Collective. The firm has transitioned from an organic affiliation focus to paid media, the push of esports, and recently the development of Playbook. This evolution provides it with greater capacity to engage different audience profiles and strengthen its position against other ecosystem participants.

North America and Evolution of Revenue Share Agreements

Growth in North America was notable, with a 49% increase in operations using revenue share models, although starting from a low base. Søgaard emphasized that, while they do not expect that growth rate each quarter, they project a more stable evolution for the second half. The company also anticipates a second half of the year with operational burdens concentrated especially in the fourth quarter and preparation for the NFL season start.

Competition and Dynamics in Predictive Markets

Better Collective observes that predictive market operators are intensely focusing on audience performance, which aligns with the traditional affiliate model. For the firm, the arrival of new actors and the consolidation of agreements with prediction platforms represent an opportunity to increase its relevance at the start of the NFL and respond to the growing competition with major traditional sports betting operators.

"We recognize income immediately with the players we send to predictive markets. This market dynamic gives us access to new audiences and a more vibrant competition," summarized Søgaard.

In terms of user behavior, the company does not detect significant differences between those interacting with predictive markets and conventional sports bettors.

Expectations for the Rest of 2026 and Conclusions

Better Collective's annual guidance remains unchanged. Søgaard reiterated that the second half typically concentrates the most activity, particularly in the fourth quarter. He also emphasized the preparation for key sporting events and the company's ability to adapt to complex regulatory environments, like those in the UK and Brazil. Strategic diversification in media, talent, and new verticals like predictive markets is seen as a pillar for weathering challenges and capitalizing on opportunities in the global betting sector.