DKeX from DraftKings rises to prediction-market podium in four months

DKeX, DraftKings’ in-house prediction exchange, reached third place by weekly notional volume with $1.04 billion for the week ended 18 October, lifting its market share to 3.57% from 2.33% on 26 September. CEO Jason Robins outlined the advance in New York on 22 October and third-party data from Aldrin Research confirm the position.

The rise in the numbers

DraftKings took the bronze less than four months after launching DKeX. Aldrin Research reported $1.04 billion in notional volume for the week ending 18 October; that sum was enough to raise DraftKings’ share from 2.33% on 26 September to 3.57% a week earlier. The sector recorded its first $11 billion notional weekend and DKeX set a personal record that Sunday with $316 million in notional volume, up 42% from the prior Sunday; the same metric was $139.8 million on 13 September, Aldrin said.

"We only launched the DraftKings exchange a few months ago, and we are already clearly No. 3," Jason Robins said during the NEXTPredict Summit session on 22 October.

How the market measures and why it matters

Notional volume counts contracts at the full value of potential payout, not the cash traders actually put up. That distinction benefits some operators more than others and reshuffles rankings behind the two leaders, which remain Kalshi and Polymarket.

Using data from a slightly later period, 17–23 October, the newsletter Earnings+More placed DKeX at $1.24 billion notional, ahead of Novig with $802 million and Crypto.com with $573 million. Switch to dollar volume, which measures what traders actually paid for contracts, and the table flips: Novig led with $217 million, while DKeX and Crypto.com were tied at $179 million each.

Product mix explains much of the difference. In the week of 18 October, combined contracts made up 78% of DKeX’s notional volume but only 31% of its dollar volume. Aldrin also noted that the real money customers spent on DKeX remained between $40 million and $42 million across the last three Sundays.

Restrictions on sports contracts and state strategy

DraftKings Predictions is live in 48 states, with Maine and New Hampshire as exceptions. However, the full offering, including sports contracts, is available in only 18 states, among them California, Florida and Texas. In states where DraftKings runs a licensed sportsbook, such as Colorado, New York and Pennsylvania, sports contracts are not listed; the company excludes sports contracts in every market where it operates retail sportsbook betting.

Kalshi and Polymarket do not apply the same "sportsbook-state" restriction. Robins acknowledged the limit: "We have done that with a much smaller state footprint than everyone else we compete with" and added that listing sports in a market the size of New York would increase weight, but the alternative might have jeopardised their licences. He also defended DraftKings’ approach under its "super app" strategy, which bundles sportsbook, Predictions and free-to-play contests to claim availability across all 50 states, though product mix varies by state.

Regulatory risks and market reaction

Legal challenges over sports contracts, the most popular product in prediction markets, are moving toward the U.S. Supreme Court. Robins said DraftKings maintains a position that could fare well in any ruling because it does not rely solely on sports contracts and has seen growth in financial markets, which could survive even without sports contracts.

Despite DKeX’s progress, investors remain demanding: DraftKings shares have fallen more than 40% this year. Robins attributed the reaction to uncertainty around the business of regulated federal exchanges, not fears about cannibalising the sportsbook: "Private markets love uncertainty. Public markets do not like uncertainty."

Compliance, scrutiny and state context

Regulatory scrutiny is present. Louisiana granted DraftKings a conditional licence extension, effective until February 2027, while regulators review its use of AI and shareholder suitability. Robins defended the company’s practices on identifying problem players and referring them to specialist teams.

Robins mentioned the Seminole tribe case in Florida; he said he found it interesting that DraftKings was singled out when other exchanges operate in the state, but declined to comment on details about why his company was highlighted.

At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has formally split sportsbook wagers from prediction markets by excluding state-authorised sports betting from its definition of swap. Ohio has ordered 10 platforms to stop offering sports contracts. Each new state order reinforces the logic behind DraftKings’ containment in markets with licensed sportsbooks, although a favourable Supreme Court ruling for exchanges could leave DraftKings disadvantaged in states it opted not to pursue.

"We were pleasantly surprised by growth in financial contracts," Robins said, referring to DKeX’s product diversification.

DKeX reached the notional-volume podium without listing sports contracts in several of the largest states where DraftKings runs a licensed sportsbook, a fact that highlights how product mix and measurement metrics shape perceptions of market leadership.