Gaming donors back Lombardo as prediction markets shift toward Ford

Joe Lombardo has received the bulk of gaming-industry money in the Nevada governor’s race, but prediction markets have favored Aaron Ford since early October. Lombardo raised $6.1 million in direct contributions between 1 January and 30 September and his campaign spent $12.4 million in that period, while Ford raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million, according to the Nevada Secretary of State's Office.

Shifts in market odds and polls

Since early October, the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have shown a move toward Aaron Ford; traders on both platforms pushed Ford’s odds above 75% in recent weeks. In August and September Lombardo was the favourite on those markets until a sharp flip this month.

Traditional polls present a tighter picture. MS NOW published a 45%-44% reading for Ford over Lombardo on Friday. Noble Predictive Insights, on 6 October, showed Lombardo ahead 42%-40% over Ford. The article notes that polls and markets can both be wrong: traditional polls did not predict Donald Trump’s 2024 victory and prediction markets did not foresee Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re‑election in Brazil this month.

Gaming money concentrated on Lombardo

The sector’s preference for Lombardo is visible in direct and indirect contributions. The Nevada Secretary of State's Office certifies that Lombardo received $6.1 million in direct contributions between 1 January and 30 September; his campaign spent $12.4 million over the same span. Ford, meanwhile, raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million.

Gaming‑linked donors have poured millions into political action committees that favour Lombardo. Nevada Way PAC has received more than $10 million, according to Transparency USA. Notable contributions include:

• $3 million from Station Casinos

• $1 million from Frank Fertitta and $1 million from Lorenzo Fertitta, chairman and vice chairman of Station Casinos

• $1 million from Las Vegas Sands

• $350k from the South Point Hotel and Casino

• $200k from Anthony Marnell III, CEO of Marnell Companies

• $200k from Boyd Gaming

• $200k from The Venetian Las Vegas

• $170k from Caesars Entertainment

• $160k from Wynn Resorts

• $150k from MGM Resorts

• $100k from Fontainebleau Las Vegas

• $25k from the El Cortez Hotel and Casino

• $25k from Golden Entertainment

• $20k from Light & Wonder

Lombardo has been promoted as pro‑business and, under his direction, state gaming regulators removed rules he called obsolete or unnecessary. Donald Trump endorsed him and appeared with Lombardo at a Las Vegas rally in August, urging supporters to vote for him “big.” At that event Lombardo said he has to “take care” of the gaming billionaires who provide jobs, a comment Ford’s campaign has criticised amid rising costs linked to Trump’s war with Iran. AAA ranks Nevada among the states with the third‑highest gasoline price in the U.S.

In recent weeks Lombardo has distanced himself from Trump to try to attract independent voters.

Union support and Ford‑aligned committees

Aaron Ford has received backing from unions, especially Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada’s most influential hospitality union. Culinary endorsed Ford in September, and Ford has supported the union’s effort to organise Station’s Red Rock Casino after the U.S. Supreme Court declined Station’s appeal.

A committee supporting Ford, A More Affordable Nevada, has received $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois governor Jay Pritzker, according to Transparency USA. Forward Nevada PAC contributed about $3 million, which itself received specific donations:

• $1 million from the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees

• $400k from Aaron Sosnick, a hedge fund manager

• $400k from attorney John Morgan

• $250k from the Service Employees International Union

• $200k from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers

• $100k from the International Union of Operating Engineers

Prediction markets and platform regulation

From the gaming industry’s perspective, Aaron Ford’s office has led measures against prediction markets. Nevada has been, the text says, possibly the most successful state at combating those platforms. Contracts tied to sports, entertainment and elections are banned from trading within the state, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in Nevada’s favour in August.

Ford said after that ruling:

"Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to evade those protections or operate outside the law," Ford said. "Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry."

The piece stresses that, although most gaming money has flowed to Lombardo, Ford’s backing has protected the state industry from what supporters see as an existential threat: prediction markets.

Brief historical context

Since 1998 Nevada was mainly governed by Republicans: Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons and Brian Sandoval held the governorship for 20 consecutive years until Democrat Steve Sisolak broke the streak in 2018. Sisolak served during the Covid‑19 pandemic in 2020, when state casinos were closed for 78 days. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak in 2022. Ford was a teacher, lawyer and state legislator before becoming attorney general in 2019.