Google bars prediction market advertising in Connecticut from October 7, 2026

Google has blocked prediction market adverts targeted at Connecticut effective October 7, 2026, with no transition period. The change makes Connecticut the fifth US state Google excludes from prediction-market targeting; the company says only CFTC-designated contract markets and National Futures Association-authorised brokers may qualify to advertise in the remaining states.

What Google changed and when

Google published its dedicated prediction markets policy on January 5, 2026, and began accepting ads under that policy on January 21, 2026. Nevada was excluded from targeting from the policy's launch. Google’s internal change log records the subsequent exclusions by date:

• Ohio: June 2, 2026

• Michigan and New York: July 13, 2026

• Connecticut: October 7, 2026

The main Google Ads policy page now lists all five states as excluded from US targeting. The October 7 update gives no separate rationale for adding Connecticut; earlier state additions likewise carried no bespoke explanations.

"Inherent complexities, speculative nature, and unique regulatory classification" of these contracts, Google wrote to explain its caution. — Google

Who can advertise under Google's rules

Google sets a high eligibility bar. Only two types of advertiser can potentially qualify to run prediction market ads in the US under the new regime:

1. A designated contract market (DCM) authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) where listing exchange-traded event contracts is the operator's main business.

2. A brokerage authorised by the National Futures Association (NFA) to provide customers access to a qualifying DCM.

Meeting those criteria makes an operator merely eligible to apply; advertisers must hold all applicable local financial, commodity and/or gaming licences and must be certified by Google. Google requires a separate certification application for every location an advertiser intends to target.

Google's policy also lists categories it rejects outright: binary options and fixed-return contracts, markets based on games of chance or lotteries, affiliate sites and broker reviews that publish trading signals.

How regulators and states have acted

All five states on Google's exclusion list have taken legal or regulatory action against prediction market operators. Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders on September 10, 2026, to nine platforms: Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, ProphetX, Novig, Webull, Gemini and Underdog Predict. The governor's office said the orders cover sports event contracts and any other form of unlicensed online gambling; each named platform must stop advertising, offering, promoting or otherwise making those products available in Connecticut, and must let Connecticut residents withdraw funds.

Kalshi was not on Connecticut's cease-and-desist list because the state is already pursuing a separate lawsuit and seeking an injunction against it. Michigan's case centres on marketing: a September 1, 2026 preliminary injunction bars Kalshi from offering sports contracts to anyone located in Michigan, restricts marketing those products to Michigan residents and requires a third-party geolocation service; breaches can cost $500,000 a day. Michigan alleges promotional emails and targeted ads for Kalshi kept reaching residents after the order and has asked Ingham County Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina to hold Kalshi in civil contempt.

State regulators have issued subpoenas aimed at service providers rather than alleging wrongdoing by those recipients. Connecticut subpoenaed three groups: nine licensed gaming service providers including PayPal, Sportradar and Genius Sports; 15 media organisations including ESPN and NBC Connecticut; and app stores and unlicensed payment processors including the Apple App Store, Google Play, Apple Pay, Google Wallet and Stripe. Connecticut’s statement said none of the subpoena recipients is under investigation.

Advertising spend and market context

Paid search spending by prediction markets and the major sportsbooks rose 21% year on year in the first seven months of 2026, Nielsen research provided to Axios showed. Celebrity deals have been a significant part of that spend: Polymarket has signed LeBron James, Derek Jeter and Eli Manning and has run ads with Spike Lee and Alexandra Daddario. Kalshi has worked with Giannis Antetokounmpo and has featured Timothée Chalamet. Novig’s September 2026 campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney generated headlines and drew backlash over the ads’ tone.

Established sportsbooks are also promoting their prediction products. DraftKings ran a statewide campaign in California for its Predictions platform ahead of the NFL season; that campaign prompted a new lawsuit.

Market-share data cited by Axios from Sensor Tower shows traditional sportsbooks controlled an estimated 76% of legal US sports wagering in 2023, falling to 64% in the first half of 2026. Prediction markets rose from 1% to 16% over the same period.

Consumer awareness remains limited. An S&P Global Market Intelligence consumer survey found 44% of respondents had never heard of prediction markets, 42% knew the operators but had not used them, and among people who had traded, 70% had traded on sports outcomes.

Enforcement, platforms and next steps

Google's rule applies only to Google Ads targeting; prediction market sites still appear in Google Search and whether Connecticut or other residents can trade depends on court orders and each platform's geofencing. Google has published no formal criteria for adding a state to its exclusion list, so operators receive no advance notice when a state is added.

Operators named in state actions include Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, ProphetX, Webull, Gemini and Underdog Predict. Regulators and federal agencies are also active: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has investigated Polymarket over alleged fake influencer content, and states continue to use marketing as evidence in enforcement actions.

Legal fights continue. Underdog is suing seven states over sports contracts, Connecticut is pursuing separate legal action against Kalshi, and Michigan has asked a judge to hold Kalshi in contempt for alleged post-injunction marketing activity.

This regulatory and commercial tangle frames why Google has removed prediction-market ads from targeting in Connecticut as of October 7, 2026, and why qualifying to advertise will require CFTC and NFA credentials plus per-location Google certification.