Google blocks prediction market ads targeted at Connecticut

Google blocked advertising for prediction markets targeted at residents of Connecticut effective 7 October 2026, with no transition period. The company had already excluded Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio; all five states have taken legal or regulatory action against operators of these markets.

Timeline of Google policy

Google published its policy on prediction markets on 5 January 2026 and began accepting ads on 21 January 2026. Nevada was excluded from the outset. Google’s change log records the following exclusion dates by state:

• Ohio: 2 June 2026

• Michigan and New York: 13 July 2026

• Connecticut: 7 October 2026

On 14 October 2026, Search Engine Roundtable reported that Google had moved these rules into the main Ads policy document the previous week. The update affecting Connecticut does not explain the specific reason behind the decision; prior exclusions likewise gave no detailed motives. Google’s main policy page now lists the five states as excluded from targeting within the US.

Advertiser requirements

Google justifies caution because of the “inherent complexities, speculative nature and unique regulatory classification” of these contracts. Only two types of advertisers may apply to run ads:

1. A Designated Contract Market (DCM) authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where the exchange’s primary activity is listing event contracts.

2. A broker authorised by the National Futures Association (NFA) that provides access to a qualifying DCM.

Meeting those criteria makes an operator eligible to request certification but does not guarantee approval. Advertisers must hold all applicable local licences—financial, commodities and/or gambling—and must also obtain Google certification, with a separate application for each location they wish to target.

What Google explicitly rejects

The policy lists content that is rejected without exception: binary options and fixed-return contracts, markets based on gambling or lotteries, affiliate sites and broker reviews that publish trading signals. Gaming affiliates already faced tighter certification rules on the casino and sportsbook sides of Google. I reported these policy cross-references while tracking ad rules for [Google Ads](/regulation).

Marketing spend and celebrity deals

Nielsen, in data provided to Axios, reported that paid advertising spend by prediction markets and major sportsbooks rose 21% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026. Large spends have partly gone to celebrity deals: Polymarket has signed LeBron James, Derek Jeter and Eli Manning, and has produced ads with Spike Lee and Alexandra Daddario. Kalshi used Giannis Antetokounmpo and featured Timothée Chalamet in its campaigns. Novig launched a September campaign with Sydney Sweeney that drew press attention and criticism for a bolder tone.

DraftKings ramped promotion of its Predictions product in California ahead of the NFL season, and that campaign also prompted litigation. Ohio this month instructed 10 platforms to stop offering sports contracts; Novig was among them.

Market share and consumer awareness

Sensor Tower estimated that traditional sportsbooks captured 76% of the legal US sports-betting market in 2023; by the first half of 2026 their share had fallen to 64%. In the same period, prediction markets rose from 1% to 16%. An S&P Global Market Intelligence survey found that 44% of respondents had never heard of prediction markets and 42% knew operators but had not used them; among those who had traded, 70% traded on sporting outcomes.

State actions and subpoenas

Marketing has become evidence in state enforcement actions. On 10 September 2026 Connecticut’s governor announced that the Department of Consumer Protection had issued cease-and-desist orders to nine platforms: Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, ProphetX, Novig, Webull, Gemini and Underdog Predict. According to the governor’s office, the orders cover contracts on sporting events and any other form of unlicensed online wagering; they require each platform to stop advertising, offering, promoting or making those products available and to allow Connecticut residents to withdraw their funds.

Kalshi was excluded from that list because the state is already suing it separately and is seeking an injunction. Connecticut issued subpoenas to three recipient groups: nine licensed gaming service providers, including PayPal, Sportradar and Genius Sports; 15 media organisations, including ESPN and NBC Connecticut; and unlicensed app stores and payment processors: Apple App Store, Google Play, Apple Pay, Google Wallet and Stripe. The state said none of the subpoena recipients is under investigation.

Michigan litigation and federal scrutiny

Michigan is in direct dispute with Kalshi over marketing. A preliminary injunction dated 1 September 2026 bars Kalshi from offering sports contracts to anyone located in the state, restricts marketing of those products to Michigan residents and requires the use of a third‑party geolocation service. The order, signed by Judge Rosemarie Aquilina of the Ingham County Circuit Court, sets penalties of $500,000 per day for non‑compliance. Michigan alleges that Kalshi promotional emails and targeted ads continued to reach residents after the order and has asked the court to hold the company in civil contempt.

At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has probed Polymarket over alleged false influencer content. Google’s rule is narrower than these state actions or federal probes: it applies only to Google Ads targeting. Prediction market sites still appear in Google Search, and whether a resident can trade depends on court orders and the geofencing each platform applies. Google has not published criteria for adding a state to the exclusion list, so operators receive no prior notice.

Underdog is the only platform mentioned in this article that is suing seven states over sports contracts.

"The inherent complexities, speculative nature and unique regulatory classification" is the explanation Google offers for its caution, according to its ads policy, the company said.