Kalshi launches sector KPI markets settled with Carbon Arc data

Kalshi launched on 23 October 2026 a new class of contracts that track sector indices — credit card spend, point-of-sale, foot traffic and app downloads — and settle to figures from data company Carbon Arc. The first sector arrays were listed on 15 October and Kalshi's public series show volumes and settlements already recorded in September.

What Kalshi launched and how it works

The platform said it creates markets that aggregate metrics from multiple companies to form a sector index. Each "array" is the equally weighted average of year‑on‑year indices for four or five companies; a value of 100 equals the same level as one year earlier. Kalshi explains the contract asks whether the October index will close above a strike, using the value Kalshi records a few days after the month ends (for example, four days for the fast‑food array and seven days for AI apps). Later revisions do not count.

Kalshi already lists nine public sector arrays, covering everything from credit‑card spend at fast‑food chains to downloads of AI chat apps. The AI apps array includes ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok at 25% weight each. The fast‑food credit‑card spend array includes McDonald's, Starbucks, Chipotle, Wendy's and Chick‑fil‑A at 20% each. Other series cover credit‑card spend at big‑box retailers, delivery, downloads for streaming and rideshare apps, and point‑of‑sale spend for energy drinks, nicotine and soft drinks.

"Slicing equities into events and KPIs is one of Kalshi's best use cases, and the sector level is the logical next step," said Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's CEO, in the 23 October statement.

Kalshi says prices offer a continuous forecast and that the contracts can open hedging uses for retailers, restaurant chains and app developers; it did not present public evidence of hedging demand in the announcement. [See more on industry markets](/b2b)

Data and volumes already visible on the platform

Kalshi's public API lists 109 series that name Carbon Arc as the settlement source. That total includes 34 series on corporate credit‑card spend, 24 on app downloads and 11 on advertising spend by category.

In September data, the Online Sportsbook Ad Spend series settled at 127.45, which by Kalshi's definition equals 27.45% growth versus September 2025. Casino Ad Spend settled at 71.34, a drop of about 29%. The DraftKings downloads index for September registered 161.98 and FanDuel 62.5.

Volumes are public too: the sportsbook advertising series for September traded 66,443 contracts and the DraftKings downloads series 119,647. Among sector arrays, the AI array had traded 332 contracts and the fast‑food array roughly 5,670 as of 24 October.

Carbon Arc is listed in Kalshi's notice as the Prisms source for settlement. Carbon Arc, founded in 2021, describes itself as "the neutral data layer for the AI economy" and shows on its website clients including Kalshi, Morgan Stanley, Perplexity and Paychex, claiming more than 500 proprietary data assets across eight sectors. Kirk McKeown is cited by Business Insider as its CEO and is listed with prior experience at Point72.

Regulation and certifications in public records

Kalshi self‑certifies its contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A search of KalshiEX product certifications and rules in CFTC records, through entries dated 22 October 2026, did not find a public certification that specifically describes the sector KPI contracts nor an amendment that adds Carbon Arc as a source. [Regulatory filings and guidance](/regulation)

The file Kalshi links from its Carbon Arc markets, called CARBONARC.pdf, corresponds to a certification dated 16 July 2025 for a generic economic statistics contract (ECONSTAT) whose terms mention official statistical agencies and Trading Economics, and which states that a new source "may be added by a Part 40 amendment." The public certification found that explicitly names Carbon Arc, dated 18 June 2026, covers a contract that determines which company records the highest credit‑card spend within a set.

Kalshi keeps appendices of sources confidential in its filings.

The outstanding legal issue after the SEC decision on KPIs

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s approval of Cboe's KPI binary options, described in the order of 13 October 2026, relied on KPIs that issuers report in SEC filings; the SEC treated those products as "options on a security" because the KPIs affect the stock price. The order said it does not foreclose other structures and that similar products "may be structured differently and fall under CFTC jurisdiction."

Kalshi's contracts differ in two key respects: they settle to estimates from a data vendor rather than to issuer disclosures, and the arrays mix indicators from multiple companies. The statute that defines an "event" as a swap tied to a single issuer requires the event to affect the issuer's financial statements directly; a third‑party estimate of downloads raises questions whether it fits that definition. Neither the SEC nor the CFTC has issued a clear rule on this case; both agencies issued a joint request for comment on swap definitions on 18 June 2026, and the CFTC has since proposed defining event contracts as swaps.

Jack Such of Kalshi told Business Insider the intent was to "ETF‑ify" corporate KPI markets, a phrase Kalshi cited in external coverage.

What changes for operators and markets

The sportsbook ad indices and app downloads now tradable are based on numbers operators do not produce or correct. In September, Carbon Arc put DraftKings at 161.98 and FanDuel at 62.5 for downloads, and those are the values Kalshi used to settle, regardless of any internal figures operators may report.

Kalshi's rules for series based on panels bar staff of Carbon Arc, underlying panel providers and personnel with access to non‑public data from trading the relevant series, according to the CCSPEND certification of 18 June 2026. Nonetheless, the public rules for the advertising markets do not detail which channels or advertisers the advertising‑spend index specifically covers.

Kalshi's product expands the line of markets built on third‑party data that the platform neither produces nor files with regulators. Whether agencies treat a vendor's sales estimate as a commodity or as an event tied to an issuer will determine the regulatory and commercial scope of these contracts. [Industry coverage and commentary](/news)

"The relationship with Carbon Arc and the use of its Prisms allows Kalshi to offer sector‑level decisions instead of bets on individual companies," Kirk McKeown commented in Carbon Arc's statement quoted by Kalshi.