Kalshi market prices Jensen Huang exit at 80% before 1 Dec 2026
Probability rose after a NYT report and political and board pressure
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi shows an 80% probability that Jensen Huang will leave before 1 December 2026.
- The Kalshi market also prices an 86% chance of exit before 1 January 2027 and 90% before 1 July 2027.
- A New York Times report alleges a second undisclosed relationship involving Kimberly Powell and cites five former employees.
- NVIDIA's board opened an investigation on 8 November 2026; Huang admitted a prior extramarital relationship in an employee memo.
- U.S. lawmakers including Senator Kevin Cramer and Representatives Brian Mast, John Moolenaar and Rick Crawford demanded explanations and pushed for Huang to appear or resign.
Kalshi traders sharply raised the probability that Jensen Huang will leave his role as NVIDIA chief executive, pricing an 80% chance of departure before 1 December 2026. The Kalshi market on Huang's exit also showed an 86% probability of exit before 1 January 2027 and 90% before 1 July 2027.
New York Times report on a second relationship
A New York Times report published Wednesday alleges Jensen Huang had an undisclosed relationship with another NVIDIA executive. The article names Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA's vice president of health care, as the person involved in the alleged second relationship and cites five former employees who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
According to the report, a witness recorded Huang and Powell together in a San José hotel during NVIDIA's annual developer conference in March 2026. The Times also describes an encounter between that witness and Huang's security staff that involved a proposed confidentiality agreement; the newspaper did not obtain a copy of the video.
Board and political reaction
Olivia Beavers of The Wall Street Journal wrote on X that NVIDIA's board of directors was weighing Huang's removal after the allegations. Beavers cited sources close to the matter and wrote:
"The board is preparing to meet as soon as today to determine his future, people familiar with the matter said," wrote Olivia Beavers.
On 8 November 2026 Huang acknowledged a prior extramarital relationship amid allegations that could involve ties to Chinese intelligence. NVIDIA's board opened an investigation that same day. Huang sent a memo to employees admitting the first relationship, apologising and promising to cooperate with the inquiry. He wrote:
"My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust. I have fallen short of that responsibility."
Outlets including CNBC reported that Capitol Hill leaders demanded Huang's resignation or removal. Senator Kevin Cramer, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, intensified calls for him to step down. Representatives Brian Mast, John Moolenaar and Rick Crawford, who chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the House Select Committee on China and the House Intelligence Committee respectively, requested that Huang appear before Congress in a closed session; according to the report, they had not received a response from Huang by Wednesday afternoon. Mast and Moolenaar did not rule out using subpoenas to compel his testimony.
Probabilities in the Kalshi market
Kalshi's prediction-market platform reflects the immediate reaction to the reports and public and political pressure. The reported levels are:
80%: Jensen Huang leaves before 1 December 2026
86%: leaves before 1 January 2027
90%: leaves before 1 July 2027
Kalshi notes the information is provided for informational purposes and is not investment advice. Kalshi is subject to regulatory oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Product warnings and context
The article includes Kalshi's standard disclaimer: this is not financial advice, trading event contracts with leverage carries risks, and Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. It also reiterates age and eligibility requirements.
Frequently Asked Questions
What probability does Kalshi assign to Jensen Huang leaving before 1 December 2026?
Kalshi assigns an 80% probability to Jensen Huang leaving before 1 December 2026; the market also shows 86% for before 1 January 2027 and 90% for before 1 July 2027.
What did the New York Times report about Jensen Huang?
The New York Times reported an alleged undisclosed relationship between Jensen Huang and Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA's vice president of health care, citing five former employees who spoke anonymously.
How did NVIDIA respond to the allegations?
NVIDIA's board opened an investigation on 8 November 2026. Jensen Huang acknowledged a prior extramarital relationship in a memo to employees, apologised and said he would cooperate with the probe.
What role has the U.S. Congress played in this matter?
Members of Congress pressed for transparency and potential removal; Senator Kevin Cramer called for Huang's resignation and Representatives Brian Mast, John Moolenaar and Rick Crawford asked him to appear in a closed congressional session, saying subpoenas could be used if needed.
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About the author
Renata Quiroga
Betting Markets Correspondent
Renata Quiroga covers sports betting and prediction markets — sportsbook launches, odds technology, event contracts, and the regulatory calls that decide what can be bet on and where. The reports open with the product or the ruling, name operators and platforms precisely, and explain the mechanics without needless jargon. When a book enters a Latin American market or a prediction exchange lists a contested contract, Renata Quiroga reports what changes for the bettor.
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