Kalshi markets cut Hegseth impeachment odds to 4% for 2026

Traders on Kalshi sharply reduced the probability that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will be impeached before the end of 2026 after the House blocked an immediate removal effort. The Kalshi impeachment market now indicates a 4% chance for 2026, a drop of 82 percentage points from the 86% shown on 9 November, before the House vote.

Market movement and time horizons

Beyond the 2026 contract, Kalshi markets put the chance of impeachment at 66% before April 2027 and 74% before July 2027. Traders are also pricing the probability that Hegseth leaves office by resignation, removal, or other reasons: 56% before April 2027, 61% before July 2027 and 65% before October 2027.

House vote and Massie’s effort

Representative Thomas Massie filed articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Monday, but Republican members of the House blocked the effort the following day. Reuters reported the House voted 211-204 to refer the impeachment resolution to the House Judiciary Committee rather than vote directly on the charges. Because Republicans control that committee, the referral effectively stalled Massie’s immediate effort. Massie was the only Republican to vote against the motion to refer the resolution.

According to Al Jazeera, 11 Democrats did not reach the procedural vote; had they voted with their party, Democrats would have had enough votes to defeat the motion and force a full House vote. The vote does not prevent new impeachment attempts in 2027 when, the article says, both the House and Senate will be under Democratic control.

Absences and statements on the floor

Several outlets reported notable absences during the vote. The Wall Street Journal noted that Democratic members such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic whip Katherine Clark and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi were not present when the votes were cast. Pelosi traveled to California for a Veterans Day event and other members said a traffic incident prevented them from arriving in time.

“As I was heading to the floor to oppose that motion, a traffic incident and a police‑escorted bus caused a delay that resulted in the vote closing before I, along with other members, could get to the chamber,” Representative Jonathan Jackson said.

The New York Times reported Massie plans to continue pressing Republicans for the remainder of his term. Massie, with only weeks left in Congress, said:

“I will give them every opportunity I can to vote for common sense before I leave. And if they pass on the vote for common sense, then… I mean, everyone will be in elections in 2028.”

Regulatory context and usage warnings

Kalshi makes clear that information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The piece reminds readers that trading event contracts and leveraged products carries risks and that Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Kalshi is subject to regulatory oversight by the CFTC.

Key data now shown by Kalshi markets are:

• Hegseth being impeached in 2026: 4%

• Hegseth being impeached before April 2027: 66%

• Hegseth being impeached before July 2027: 74%

• Hegseth leaving office before April 2027: 56%

• Hegseth leaving office before July 2027: 61%

• Hegseth leaving office before October 2027: 65%

For market tracking and legislative context, this report complements coverage of political news and regulation relevant to event trading.