Kalshi projects Annie Andrews will win South Carolina Senate seat in 2026
Market traders priced Andrews at 99% after markets closed, flipping a Republican seat held since 1998.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi projected Annie Andrews (D) would win the South Carolina Senate seat with a 99% probability after markets closed.
- The projection flips a Republican seat held since 1998 and represents a net pickup for Democrats.
- Senator Lindsey Graham's death on 11 July 2026 and Governor Henry McMaster's appointment of Darline Graham shaped the race.
- Darline Graham won the 25 August 2026 runoff over Ralph Norman, but Republican divisions persisted and Norman did not campaign for her.
- Public polls were tighter: The New York Times/Siena showed a 48% tie while Kalshi's poll average gave Graham a roughly 1.5-point lead.
[Kalshi](/b2b) projected that Annie Andrews (D) will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina, with traders putting her probability at 99% after markets closed, versus 39% when polls closed. The projection indicates Andrews defeats Darline Graham (R) and flips a seat held by Republicans since 1998, giving Democrats a net pickup of the chamber.
How the market moved
The Kalshi market on the South Carolina Senate seat showed marked moves since July 2026. After Senator Lindsey Graham died on 11 July 2026, Republicans reached 85% on the platform; by the final projection Andrews reached 99%. Kalshi notes its projections do not equal market settlement nor that the race has been officially called.
Context of the Republican candidacy
Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, after Lindsey Graham's death; Lindsey had already won the June 2026 primary. Darline Graham defeated Representative Ralph Norman in the runoff on 25 August 2026 to appear on the ballot. The party was divided after the primary: Norman declined to campaign for Graham, and former President Trump visited the state three times to support her. Either nominee would have been the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina.
Difference between market and polls
Public polls were tighter than the market: a The New York Times/Siena poll showed the race tied at 48%, and Kalshi's poll average had Graham ahead by about 1.5 points.
Note on risks and regulation
Kalshi warns of product risks and access restrictions; the platform is subject to oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For rules and supervision see [regulation](/regulation).
Frequently Asked Questions
What probability did Kalshi assign to Annie Andrews after markets closed?
Kalshi assigned Annie Andrews a 99% probability after markets closed, compared with 39% when polls closed.
Why did Republican dynamics change in the South Carolina Senate race?
The dynamics shifted after Senator Lindsey Graham's death on 11 July 2026 and Governor Henry McMaster's appointment of his sister Darline Graham; that appointment and a divisive primary reshaped the contest.
Do Kalshi projections equal an official election call?
No. Kalshi's projections do not equal market settlement or an official call of the race, according to the platform itself.
How did polls compare with the Kalshi market?
A The New York Times/Siena poll showed the race tied at 48%, while Kalshi's poll average had Darline Graham ahead by about 1.5 points.
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About the author
Renata Quiroga
Betting Markets Correspondent
Renata Quiroga covers sports betting and prediction markets — sportsbook launches, odds technology, event contracts, and the regulatory calls that decide what can be bet on and where. The reports open with the product or the ruling, name operators and platforms precisely, and explain the mechanics without needless jargon. When a book enters a Latin American market or a prediction exchange lists a contested contract, Renata Quiroga reports what changes for the bettor.
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