Kalshi projects Roy Cooper to win North Carolina Senate race 2026
Kalshi gave Cooper 99% on 4 Nov 2026; projection flips a GOP seat and leaves Democrats three short of a majority.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi projected on 4 November 2026 that Roy Cooper would win the North Carolina Senate race, pricing him at 99%.
- Traders on Kalshi had Cooper at 99%, rising from 98% when polls closed, and he led market pricing all year from a 77% opening.
- The projection flips a Republican-held seat and is the first Democratic win for this North Carolina Senate seat since 2008.
- After the projection, Democrats are three net seats short of a Senate majority.
Kalshi projected on 4 November 2026 that Roy Cooper (D) will win the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate race, defeating Michael Whatley (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Cooper at 99%, up from 98% when polls closed; the platform warned the projection is not a market resolution nor an official call of the contest.
Market movement and background
Kalshi’s North Carolina Senate market opened 2026 with Democrats at 77%. Cooper, a two-term former governor, was the market favorite all year and reached 99% in the projection. Michael Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, was making his first run for elected office.
Alignment with polls
Polls aligned with the market pricing: an Elon University poll showed Cooper ahead by 13 points, and Kalshi’s polling average placed Cooper ahead by approximately 9.8 points.
Implications of the result
Kalshi’s projection represents the flip of a seat previously held by Republicans, the first Democratic win for this North Carolina Senate seat since 2008. After this projection, Democrats are 3 net seats short of a majority.
"This projection does not imply market resolution nor that the contest has been called," Kalshi warned.
Kalshi operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and provides information that, the firm says, does not constitute financial advice. For regulatory details consult [regulation](/regulation).
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage did Kalshi give Roy Cooper in the projection?
Kalshi projected Roy Cooper with a 99% probability, up from 98% when polls closed.
Does Kalshi’s projection mean the race was officially called?
No. Kalshi explicitly warned the projection does not constitute market resolution or an official call of the contest.
How did the Kalshi market move for this seat during 2026?
The market opened 2026 with Democrats at 77%, and Cooper remained the favorite throughout the year, reaching 99% in the final projection.
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About the author
Renata Quiroga
Betting Markets Correspondent
Renata Quiroga covers sports betting and prediction markets — sportsbook launches, odds technology, event contracts, and the regulatory calls that decide what can be bet on and where. The reports open with the product or the ruling, name operators and platforms precisely, and explain the mechanics without needless jargon. When a book enters a Latin American market or a prediction exchange lists a contested contract, Renata Quiroga reports what changes for the bettor.
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